#BTC #ETH Bitcoin and Ethereum experience a "double kill" late at night: $75,400 and $2,100, who is the bottom? Who is fleeing?

The macro "three mountains" weigh down, ETF net outflows for 10 consecutive days, and the new Fed Chair just took office with a hawkish stance—cryptocurrency markets are going through the most painful week since 2026.
1. The rebound is "fragile," bulls are pressed to the ground and rubbed
Early morning on May 24, the crypto market once again staged the classic script of "rising sharply then falling back." Bitcoin had a slight rebound in the past 24 hours but was pushed back before even touching the $76,000 mark. Previously, the vigorous rebound in early May—from $71,000 straight to $81,965—has now been completely erased, with all gains in May "reset."
Ethereum is even more brutal. Although it rebounded 2.5% intraday, it has fallen 8.4% over the past 30 days, with four consecutive weekly declines. Just two weeks ago, it was flaunting above $2,400, now it’s fighting to hold the psychological line at $2,000. This isn’t the result of some black swan event, but a slow macro "meat grinder" crushing bulls.
2. Bitcoin: $75,000 critical level, is the next "70" approaching?
Technical: Bearish arrangement, even the 200-day moving average is a distant hope
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows a "standard bearish lineup": MA7, MA30 all below MA120. Every rebound near $76,000 feels like hitting an invisible wall—that’s the selling pressure from a large amount of trapped positions. More deadly is the 200-day moving average (around $81,600–$82,400). XWIN Japan Research notes that the current pattern is eerily similar to March 2022: back then, BTC was also blocked at the 200-day line, starting a long winter. Now, this "bull-bear dividing line" is high above, and Bitcoin can’t even touch its shadow. Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with prices hugging the lower band. The lower band is at $74,000—if this level is broken, the next visible target is $70,000. Once $70,000 is breached, a "mid-term trend reversal" is no longer just a scare tactic.
Leverage minefield: a fall below $75,193 will trigger a stampede
Although the current fear index is only 28 (fear zone), the leverage structure remains sensitive. Coinglass data shows that if BTC falls below $75,193, the accumulated long liquidation pressure below will rapidly increase. During the week of May 18, the entire market saw $657 million liquidated in 24 hours, with 89% being longs—leverage longs are "frail" and ready to collapse at any touch.
3. Ethereum: a "good kid" even worse than Bitcoin
ETH/BTC rate is heading south. Over the past month, Bitcoin only fell 5.5%, but Ethereum dropped 8.2%—the high beta effect is no joke when falling.
Technical: $2,000 is the last refuge
Ethereum’s daily chart also shows a standard bearish arrangement, with EMA120 (around $2,150) like a mountain pressing down. On May 22, ETH tried to break $2,145 but was "dissuaded" by the 100-day moving average and the lower edge of a wedge pattern. The $2,000–$2,030 zone is currently the most solid "buy order block" for bulls. After losing $2,100 on May 23, the price dipped to around $1,950, then barely bounced back above $2,100. But if it tests $2,000 again, whether it can hold is uncertain. The middle Bollinger Band at $2,083 has yet to stabilize—old technical adage "if the middle band isn’t broken, the rebound is a continuation of the downtrend" is repeatedly validated on ETH.
Liquidation "nuclear button": $2,172 and $1,971
Coinglass’s liquidation map shows two "bombs": breaking above $2,172 → $1.47B in long positions on major CEXs will be liquidated, possibly triggering a short squeeze and pushing ETH sharply higher. Breaking below $1,971 → $613 million in longs face liquidation, blood flowing. Currently, prices hover around $2,100, with bulls and bears waiting for the other to fire first.
4. The macro "three mountains": US bonds, oil prices, and Wosh
Why can’t positive regulatory news (Clarity Act) move the market? Why are ETF outflows continuing? Because macro factors are already holding the market down.
1️⃣ US bond yields "break 5," opportunity cost kills
On May 21, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.01%, the first time since 2007. With risk-free rates at 5%, who still wants to hold zero-yield Bitcoin and Ethereum? MOVE volatility index jumped 14.7% in a single day, capital is retreating from risk assets.
2️⃣ Oil prices break $100, inflation "rekindled"
Iran tensions + Strait of Hormuz blockade push WTI and Brent crude above $100/barrel. US April CPI YoY at 3.8%, PPI at 6%, all above expectations. The market has completely abandoned the hope of rate cuts in 2026—CME FedWatch shows the probability of further rate hikes this year has risen to 52%.
3️⃣ Fed Chair Wosh: hawkish king
On May 13, Kevin Wosh replaced Powell as the new Fed Chair. Known for "monetary discipline," "high real interest rates," and "balance sheet reduction." Historical data shows that every Fed Chair transition sees BTC retreat 77%–84% on average. Though not as extreme this time, Wosh’s first move has already burned the crypto market significantly.
5. ETF outflows continue: institutions "hit and withdraw"
Last week (by May 23), Bitcoin spot ETF recorded over $1 billion net outflow in a single week, the first since late January. Ethereum spot ETF is even worse—10 consecutive days of net outflows, the longest since March 2025, with about $216 million flowing out in a week. The 13F filings in Q1 also reveal more intriguing signals: Harvard Endowment Fund cut Bitcoin ETF holdings by 43%, fully liquidated Ethereum ETF, shifting funds to AI computing power. Goldman Sachs reduced holdings in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, liquidated XRP and Solana-related products. Jane Street: though reducing Bitcoin ETF holdings by 71%, increased Ethereum ETF holdings by $82 million—likely a hedging move as a market maker, not a bullish signal.
One sentence: smart money is reducing positions, not bottom-fishing.
6. Ethereum’s "internal wounds": TVL decline, Gas fees collapse
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has another "internal bomb": on-chain activity plummeting. DeFi total value locked (TVL) share has dropped from 63.5% early 2025 to around 53–54%, with Solana, Base, BNB Chain rapidly eating market share.
Mainnet Gas fees have fallen to $0.01–$0.04, the lowest in PoS era. Mainnet 24-hour total revenue under $380k, with Layer 2 handling 95% of transactions. Low Gas fees mean ETH burning mechanism is failing, supply may revert to inflation. The market is starting to question: "Can Ethereum still capture value?" This isn’t something technical analysis can solve—it's a shake in fundamental belief.
7. Scenario analysis: what’s next?
Bearish scenario (more probable)
BTC: if it cannot break $76,014 and falls below $75,193, targets are $74,400 → $74,000–$73,500 → $70,000. Losing $70,000 means a mid-term trend reversal. ETH: if it cannot hold above $2,100 and break $2,150, then the rebound ends, with targets at $2,030–$2,000 → $1,950 → $1,770–$1,890. Extreme case: $1,550–$1,650. Trigger conditions: US bond yields continue rising / oil prices stay high / ETF outflows enter the third week.
Bullish scenario (requires strong signals)
BTC: volume breakout above $76,744 and hold, then push towards $78,000–$79,400, aiming to challenge $82,724 (Bollinger upper band) or even the 200-day moving average.
ETH: volume breakout above $2,150 and daily close above, with ETF turning into continuous net inflow, and US bond yields falling below 4.8%.
Note: If BTC stabilizes at $74,000 and ETH at $2,000 with rebounds, short-term risk/reward (3:1) looks good— but only if macro conditions don’t worsen again.
8. The last "lifeline": Clarity Act still hopeful
Don’t forget, on May 14, the Senate Banking Committee passed the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" with 15 votes in favor, 9 against. If the full Senate approves, ETH will be explicitly classified as a commodity, staking yields legalized, and CFTC takes over regulation. This is a historic positive for Ethereum and a major compliance breakthrough for Bitcoin.
But why isn’t the market rallying? Because macro "fast variables" are crushing the regulatory "slow variables"—like telling you you’ll win the lottery tomorrow, but today your house is on fire, and you only care about the fire. If US bond yields and oil prices ease marginally, this paper law could be the fuse for the next rally.
Currently, the market isn’t dictated by technicals or news—it's the 10-year US bond yield and Iran’s oil tankers that matter. Bitcoin at $75,400 and Ethereum at $2,100 seem close to the bottom, but every rebound looks like a trap. Without hedging tools or stop-loss discipline, this "left-side bottom-fishing" is akin to catching flying knives.
This article is based on publicly available market data, technical indicators, and macro information; it does not constitute any investment advice.