$6.6 billion worth of options are about to be settled—will Bitcoin’s last period of sideways trading be over? After reading this, you’ll understand.

① The daily chart confirms the bear market
The gap has been filled, and the rebounds within the bear market have ended. $60k is coming—possibly even lower. The market is validating this script.

② Powell’s appointment ≠ rate cut
A new official takes office and clearly calls for “balance sheet reduction,” while rejecting any backstops. The era of cheap liquidity is over—this is a long-term bearish signal, not short-term speculation.

③ U.S. stocks are inflated, and the signals are flashing
“The ominous sign of the Hindenburg” gets triggered simultaneously on the NYSE and NASDAQ, and the Shiller P/E ratio is approaching the bubble peak of 2000. A few big giants are celebrating wildly, masking the weakness of most stocks.

④ Rate-hike expectations are heating up; the dream of rate cuts is dead
CPI is back to 3.8%, and employment remains solid. The market no longer discusses rate cuts—instead, it begins pricing in the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year.

⑤ War-related news has lost impact
Even if there truly is a ceasefire, at most it will only trigger a final rally—no real cash will come in to take the baton. Macro liquidity is tightening, not being pumped.

⑥ May 29 options mass settlement
With $6.6 billion in options about to be settled, the biggest pain point is concentrated in the 75,000-80,000 range. Prices will very likely be pinned there, oscillating within the range, with neither side able to break through.

⑦ June 12—this is the biggest test for liquidity in the crypto space
SpaceX will list on June 12, raising $75 billion, setting the record for the largest IPO in human history. Where does this money come from? It’s drawn from the risk capital pool—the same pot of money that buys coins. On the same day, SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index; passive funds will have to trim holdings in components like Apple and Nvidia to free up positions to buy SpaceX. Tech stocks will face pressure, and Bitcoin (correlated with the Nasdaq at 0.81) will be hard to stay unaffected. Will history repeat itself? On the day Coinbase went public in 2021, Bitcoin peaked at 64,800 and then halved. With $75 billion in liquidity drained, the market in June will be colder than now—possibly even a crash!

For operations: I have no reason to chase longs at a premium.
You can short-sell from the range; add on a breakdown. No bottom fishing, no big-picture hold, no going long.
If a full ceasefire is announced, you can buy into an upside pop with BTC 5S to reach $60k—the profits would be very substantial.
#btc #特朗普