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Tom Lee has turned against the market, believing that this is the frenzy before the plunge,
The real correction and pain period will occur in the second half of the year, with four major triggers:
1⃣ Currently, Wosh is reforming the Federal Reserve, and the market has great uncertainty about the Fed's current communication style,
It is very likely that in the second half of 2026, especially 1-2 months before the midterm elections, a strong attack will be launched to test the Federal Reserve.
2⃣ SpaceX currently has very little floating capital in the market (only about $90 billion),
But in the second half of the year, it may undergo phased unlocking; plus the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI,
The market is already pricing in a secondary market worth trillions, which could drain liquidity.
3⃣ Conflicts and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will cause global supply chain shortages,
The disconnection effects will become apparent in the second half of the year.
4⃣ The most critical point is that as the financing balance reaches a high point,
Margin debt cannot be sustained, and market speculation bullets will gradually run out,
Becoming the last straw that triggers selling pressure. #我的Gate交易时刻 $ETH