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"BTC Dominance: A Harbinger of Rise or Fear of Risk?"
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Bitcoin's dominance is above 60% for more than a month now — this is an indicator that money in crypto is concentrating specifically in BTC. Altcoins are in the shadows, but what does this mean? Fear of risk or preparation for a new cycle?
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I think there are several factors at play here. First, the uncertainty in the economy. As long as interest rates remain high and markets are nervous, bitcoin is the only asset in crypto that looks sufficiently reliable. Second, the halving of 2024. Historically, BTC has always gained strength before this event, and investors are pricing this in. And third, institutions. When BlackRock and other funds lobby for a bitcoin ETF, money goes there, not into altcoins.
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What’s next?.. There are several scenarios. If BTC.D rises to 65%+, then Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of the year, but altcoins will remain depressed. However, if after the halving money starts flowing into altcoins, then BTC.D will fall to 55%, and we will see a full-fledged altseason. In this case, projects like Solana, Chainlink, and Arbitrum could show a rise of 5-10 times.
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I am currently leaning towards a scenario where Bitcoin continues to dominate until mid-2024, but then, if it breaks $100,000, liquidity will flow into altcoins. The question is whether investors are ready to take risks again? History shows that once Bitcoin sets a new high, greed takes over, and altcoins will rise again.
#BitcoinDominanceRemainsHigh