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Federal Reserve Chair Wash said on Wednesday that financial markets should price securities based on their own assessment of the economy, rather than relying on expectations of how central bank officials will interpret data. He believes that if the market focuses more on real economic changes and independently decides which data are more important, it can form the most likely pricing and prevent the financial markets from only reflecting the central bank’s rhetoric.

> Original Title: Hitting escape velocity in the Great Melt-up
> Original Author: GRAHAM STEPHAN
> Translation: Peggy
>

Editor’s note: This article starts with a viral post on Reddit that was later deleted, and it discusses an increasingly alluring judgment in today’s U.S. stock market: given the U.S. debt is already high, fiscal deficits keep expanding, and the purchasing power of money is continually diluted, has the stock market entered a new state of “cannot truly decline”?

The logic of the Reddit post is simple: the scale of U.S. debt has become too large, so in the end the government can only dilute the debt through printing money and inflation; when the currency depreciates, stocks and hard assets denominated in dollars will rise accordingly. Therefore, stocks do not

BlockBeats News, June 18 — U.S. President Trump stated that the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is no problem. Regarding the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates, Trump said it could happen. (Jin10)

BlockBeats News: On June 18, Federal Reserve Chair Wosh said that none of the 19 attendees believes that tightening policy is needed today. (Jin10)

BlockBeats News, June 18 — Federal Reserve Chair Wosh stated, "We have already given up on forward guidance and cannot provide any forward-looking guidance on our next steps. The dot plot is drawn with a pencil and can be erased. It is expected that by the end of the year there will be a comprehensive review of our communication methods, including press conferences, the dot plot, and meeting arrangements." (Jin10)

BlockBeats message: On June 18, Federal Reserve Chair Wosh said the goal is to properly implement monetary policy, with inflation far above the 2% target. Recent history should not be a prelude to inflation problems, and no (dot plot) forecast was provided today. Agreeing with forward guidance is not very suitable for the current situation. A working group has been appointed in five areas of monetary policy. The working group’s contents include communication and the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and employment, and also inflation frameworks. The communication working group may reshape the dot plot. (Jin10)

Nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers no longer believe that, in the context of soaring oil prices after the Iran war, inflation can be brought back to 2% solely by stabilizing borrowing costs. The dot plot shows increased concerns about rate hikes; forecasts are also more pessimistic, with year-end PCE year-over-year at 3.6%, core at 3.3%, and the unemployment rate at 4.3%, indicating that the labor market has not weakened and there is no need to cut interest rates.

BlockBeats News: On June 18, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot showed that among 19 officials, only 18 submitted dot-plot forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and only 17 submitted dot-plot forecasts for 2028. Before the Federal Reserve released the dot plot, the market had already expected that the newly appointed Fed chair, Woshe, would not submit a dot-plot forecast. It is currently unclear which Fed officials have joined Woshe’s camp and did not submit a dot-plot forecast for 2028. (Jinshi)

BlockBeats reports: The Federal Reserve dot plot shows that disagreement over 2026 interest-rate expectations has widened further. There are a total of 9 people supporting rate hikes: 1 person calls for an aggressive 75-basis-point increase, distributed as 3 times (1 person), 2 times (5 people), and 1 time (1 person). Rate stays unchanged: 8 people (7 of them in March). Rate cut: 1 person expects a single rate cut, while 0 people expect two or more rate cuts. Overall, support for rate hikes in 2026 has risen significantly, with only 1 person still expecting a rate cut.

BlockBeats News, June 18 — The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that out of 19 officials, only 18 submitted dot plot forecasts.
Among the 18 officials, 1 believes that the remaining time until 2026 should see a total rate hike of 75 basis points,
5 believe the total should be 50 basis points, 3 believe it should be 25 basis points, 8 believe rates should remain unchanged,
and 1 believes rates should be cut by 25 basis points in total. (Jin10)

BlockBeats News, June 18 — The market now fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year. (Jin10)

The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows a clear hawkish tilt, with 9 out of 18 officials expecting at least one rate hike this year, 6 expecting multiple hikes, and 1 expecting a rate cut; another participant did not submit a SEP.
The policy statement has been comprehensively revised and shortened, and changes in the communication framework may lead to a reassessment of market expectations for the interest rate path.

BlockBeats News, June 18 — The Federal Reserve removed language about further interest rate adjustments in its statement. The committee unanimously agreed on this rate decision. The Federal Reserve dot plot shows that out of 19 officials, only 18 submitted dot plot forecasts. (Jin10)

BlockBeats News, June 18 — The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without change, in line with market expectations.

On June 18, several institutions previewed the Federal Reserve’s SEP and the dot plot, focusing on whether Warsh would submit individual forecasts. UBS/Goldman Sachs and others disagree on the direction of the dot plot—some lean hawkish, while others suggest changes; Barclays, Mellon, and Pacific Investment also each lean hawkish or adjust. There is disagreement on whether Warsh will submit forecasts: Bank of America, KKR Macro, and TD Securities said he may not submit; JPMorgan Chase expects he will submit; and Jefferies said Warsh has clearly opposed forward guidance.

According to Reuters, a senior U.S. official stated that the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed on Friday is not a final, binding agreement, and both sides can withdraw. The 14-point document read out by officials is consistent with previous reports, with the signing taking place in Switzerland. The next phase of negotiations will focus on the implementation order of the measures in the preliminary agreement, and the Switzerland talks are seen as a key step in further evolving the memorandum into a comprehensive agreement.

On June 18, multiple institutions showed clear divergence over the Federal Reserve’s path. The “hold steady” camp includes Moody’s, Nomura, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BNY Mellon, and generally believes there will be no rate cuts in the short term or this year. The “rate-cut” camp includes Goldman Sachs, UBS, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank, expecting future rate cuts. The “rate-hike” camp includes CaiTouw Macro, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and PGIM, believing there will be phased or “insurance-based” rate hikes. Barclays, among others, is holding steady, issuing statements or downplaying a dovish stance; Warsh’s communication approach may be adjusted.

BlockBeats reports that Haseeb Qureshi has changed his previous assessment that data, computing power, and distillation restrictions would widen the gap between open-source and closed-source models, now believing that Zhipu Z.ai has reached a new level, with excellent benchmark performance and positive early feedback. He also revealed that he is running Hermes Agent on GLM 5.2 via the AskVenice API and will provide feedback on the user experience later.