Nothing much to say this week—just three things to watch:
One is that there’s going to be a war: the US is preparing to strike Iran with Israel. When oil rises, inflation will surge again, and any hope of rate cuts is totally out of the question—stocks, crypto, and gold will all take a hit.
One is the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Thursday. It’s Powell’s last one, and the market just wants to see whether they mention the words “rate hike.” If they do, it’ll blow up immediately.
And one more is NVIDIA’s earnings report—whether AI is working or not depends on it. Alright, everyone, let’s al

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Hold on tight, we're about to take off🛫

太子炳

3h ago

Next week's market focus: Three key variables
1. Progress of the US-Iran Agreement
Iran has stated that the memorandum is in the final stages of agreement. If the deal is finalized, the crude oil risk premium will diminish, inflation expectations will ease, providing short-term sentiment support for cryptocurrencies. However, caution is needed regarding the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" realization pressure.
2. April PCE Data (Thursday)
The market is currently pricing in over a 60% chance of a December rate hike. If the PCE exceeds expectations, it will further reinforce hawkish expecta

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太子炳

23h ago

Iranian officials confirm: the memorandum is in the finalization stage.
Completely opposite to yesterday's market interpretation of "breakdown."
The geopolitical premium has been pulled back.
Short-term target is 76k-76.5k.
Go long at 74k, stop loss at 73.5k.
Until the news is confirmed, don't hold too large a position.
#特朗普称美伊正敲定协议细节 $BTC

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太子炳

05-23 09:03

The news boils down to one sentence: the U.S. and Iran have talks break down again. Iran says the U.S. has “betrayed trust and acted in bad faith,” the Strait will charge tolls, and oil prices have surged to over $100. The probability of another rate hike has jumped from 1% to 45%, and the market immediately drops to its knees in respect. $BTC

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太子炳2026-05-22 09:54:37

BTC is now fluctuating around 77,200, unable to go up or down, like constipation.
First, let's clarify the surface matter: The US-Iran drama, not even the scriptwriters can write it.
Trump said yesterday "It's almost settled," oil prices plummeted 7%, BTC surged to 78k.
But then Iran said "You're full of shit," Israel was so angry it wanted to flip the table.
Today they say "The wording has been polished," but the core issues (nuclear materials, Strait tolls) haven't been solved.
So what's with the over 78k buy orders on the order book?
Someone is holding there, but only daring to support, not to push.
No one wants to be slapped in the face by a Trump tweet in the middle of the night.
Key levels:
· Support below: 76,700 (today's low), further down 76,000 (last spike point)
· Resistance above: 78k (tried once yesterday but didn't break)
My feeling:
If the agreement is truly signed, BTC might surge to 78-79k;
If not, or if there's another flip, 76,700 is unlikely to hold. $BTC #特朗普称美伊正敲定协议细节 $CL

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太子炳

05-22 09:54

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太子炳

05-21 14:12

The data is really impressive.
Revenue of 81.6 billion, up 85%, and profits doubled. Just mentioning it casually is enough to boast.
But the market isn't excited.
Why? Fatigue from aesthetic appeal. It's like you score 100 points every day, then suddenly 98, and the teacher asks why you're slipping. This time, the guidance didn't meet the expectations of the most optimistic group, and after-hours stock prices dipped a bit.
Next, don't buy blindly.
Hardware stocks (optical modules, servers) previously surged too much, and are likely to face some pressure in the short term. Money will

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太子炳

05-21 08:29

78,000-78,200 is a hurdle. If it breaks through and holds, 78,500 and 79,000 above may be swept away in one wave. But if it can’t surge upward, there’s a high chance of a pullback to around 77,500.
$BTC ‌#灰度购入超51万HYPE并质押

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太子炳

05-20 15:04

The market sentiment is somewhat bullish in the short term, but BTC is still hovering around 76.8k, with sell orders pressing down on the order book and buying interest weak. If there is a real reaction, it will depend on whether it can stabilize above 77.5k first. Otherwise, it’s just a rebound to continue grinding sideways. $BTC

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太子炳

05-20 05:46

1. $74,700 is the bomb line — over 3.4 billion longs waiting to be liquidated
2. $79,200 is the starting point — filling the CME gap plus short squeeze (above $80,634, there are 1.77 billion shorts hanging)
The range between $75,000 and $76,000 is a critical battleground for bulls and bears
1. Tomorrow (May 21) is the FOMC minutes — the last one during Powell’s tenure, a moment of hawk or dove decision
2. Whether $75,000 can hold or not — if it holds, technical recovery is possible; if it breaks, look toward $72,960

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太子炳

05-19 12:50

1. Froth is localized. Hardware (optical modules, computing power) has increased significantly, and there is indeed some hype; but applications (AI programming, customer service, live streaming) are still in the early stages, and the truly profitable direction is applications, not selling shovels.
2. Nvidia's earnings report (after market close on May 20) is a watershed. Expectations are already maxed out; just being "passable" isn't enough, it needs to "beat expectations + guidance explosion" to continue rising. Otherwise, the hardware sector will take a hit.
3. Both A-shares and U.S. stocks

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太子炳

05-19 08:19

Today, the lowest dipped to 76,014, the highest reached 77,757, and then? It came back. Up and down by a thousand points each, poking back and forth, in the end, it’s like nothing moved.
Look at the data: the order book shows sell orders pressing down over 76k, while buy orders can’t push the price up. The long-short ratio is 1.25, more buyers than sellers, yet the price doesn’t rise— isn’t this a typical case of the bulls struggling hard, with the market makers just watching the show?
It feels like the 76k level now is a bit like “support but not a rally,” if it drops, someone will buy, b

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太子炳

05-19 05:24

Let's talk about the intentions of market makers today. Why will your stop-loss be precisely triggered?
Market makers profit from the spread and providing liquidity, not from betting on the direction.
What does that mean? They place orders on both sides. You go long, they sell to you; you go short, they buy back. They earn the small fees and the spread in between, and they don't care whether the price goes up or down.
So when you see those large order walls, nine out of ten are fake. They place them there just to lure you into opening orders at their desired levels. Once you fall for it,

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太子炳

05-18 19:16

Yesterday, I was still shoulder to shoulder with Iran, brother—if you want to sell oil, go ahead, I won’t stop you. But today the whole vibe has suddenly changed—did you flip the table and refuse to sign the agreement? Then get ready to get bombed.
Oil prices are all over the place in the wind—am I about to fly, or about to crash?
The crypto circle’s blood pressure is through the roof. Originally, I was counting on oil prices to drop, inflation to ease, and the Federal Reserve to catch its breath—then with just one sentence from Trump, the whole show is over.
This geopolitical time bomb—

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太子炳

05-18 12:31

The US really caved. The latest news says the US has agreed to lift sanctions on Iranian oil and has also proposed temporarily pausing OFAC-related sanctions before reaching a final understanding. WTI crude oil immediately broke below 104, the US dollar fell in the short term, and gold actually jumped by $25.
To put it simply, this pace boils down to: oil prices can’t be controlled, inflation can’t be pushed down, so they turn to softer measures when the hard ones don’t work.
But for crypto, a drop in oil prices means a bit less inflation pressure, so the “rate cut” narrative can be spun for a

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太子炳

05-18 05:11

Whales fighting, retail investors suffering — On-chain chaos
Some whales are depositing coins into exchanges, preparing to sell. For example, when BTC surged to $80k, someone transferred over 10k coins to Coinbase in one go, clearly showing the intent to run.
But on the other side, there are also people withdrawing coins from exchanges, roughly over $80k, clearly still looking to buy.
Take a look, big players are fighting among themselves, selling and buying at the same time, so how do you think the market will move? Gods fighting, retail investors suffering.
Even more outrageous is the Ethere

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太子炳

05-18 01:22

This decline is not caused by a single negative factor, but rather a resonance of geopolitics, interest rates, and internal deleveraging. In the short term, watch whether 76,600 can hold; if it can't, the next level is around 75,000. #Web3安全指南
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太子炳

05-17 06:47

Last week, the global bond market crashed—especially U.S. Treasuries, which fell quite sharply. Think about it: yields kept surging higher, with the 10-year hitting over 4.5%, so bond prices had no choice but to drop. Banks holding a pile of bonds are sitting on a lot of unrealized losses—seeing it is painful.
Once this thing breaks down, the impact is huge. In the U.S. stock market, tech stocks are the first to suffer; when interest rates rise, companies like Tesla and Nvidia, which are propped up by future-growth stories, take a hit. Bank stocks aren’t doing great either—smaller banks may ha

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太子炳

05-17 05:19

77,500 buy more, loss 76,800
79,200 touch empty, loss 79,800
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太子炳

05-16 14:44

Honestly, this weekend's market chart made me want to fall asleep.
BTC is just hovering around 77.9k, not breaking below 77.6k when it drops, and not bouncing above 79k when it rises. The order book has over 77.9k in buy orders, looking like someone is protecting it, but as soon as it moves up, no one follows.
I watched for two hours, and the biggest feeling is: liquidity has been drained.
Look at stablecoins, USDT + USDC are both at 320 billion, much more than last year, but the money is just sitting in exchanges, not moving. On-chain TVL remains the same, NFTs have long been forgotten. Money

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