Trump announced a postponement of military strikes against Iran, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. Despite claims of effective dialogue with Iran, Iran's parliament speaker denied direct negotiations. Trump's threats toward Iran since 2018 show a pattern of repetition, with only partial follow-through. Looking ahead, three scenarios may emerge after the 5-day period expires, with markets holding different expectations for future oil price movements. In this game, both Trump and Iran face internal pressure, and the choice between negotiations and military action will influence the development of the situation.

On March 24th, Trump's news about de-escalation in the Iran situation triggered a rapid market response globally, with stock markets surging, crude oil plummeting, and Bitcoin rising, indicating a warming of market risk appetite. Various asset classes showed distinctly different reaction pathways to the same event, with some funds taking profits from early positioning, drawing market attention to information sensitivity.

On March 24, Brent and WTI crude oil futures contracts saw a surge in trading volume and triggered a market selloff following Trump's mention of "productive dialogue" with Iran. The White House denied that officials used inside information, after which Iran's parliamentary speaker denied negotiations, causing global stock markets to retreat.

Polymarket prediction event shows a new address buying approximately $100,000 in "No" direction positions at 88.4¢, with current unrealized gains of about $70. This event is affected by evolving US-Iran situation dynamics, as Trump delays military strikes while Iran denies negotiations, leaving regional situation uncertain.

Токен TRUMP (трампная монета) недавно продолжает ослабевать, текущая цена составляет 3,21 доллара США, снижение за день составляет 1,32%, приближаясь к историческому минимуму в 2,705 доллара США. Данные по операциям в цепи блокчейна показывают, что давление продаж полностью не было высвобождено, основные оттоки капитала значительны. Технический анализ указывает на то, что при продолжении тренда цена может упасть до 2,71 доллара США, 3,00 доллара США являются психологической поддержкой, рыночные настроения становятся осторожными.

On March 22, following Trump's ultimatum to Iran, Bitcoin fell below $69,200, with a 24-hour decline of 2.2%. Market sentiment impacted mainstream crypto assets across the board, with a general downturn despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged. War risk prompted traders to exercise caution. If Iran fails to restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict could escalate, affecting global energy transportation.

On March 22, after Trump issued a "48-hour ultimatum," crude oil prices rose. Sky founder Rune's multiple leveraged positions were profitable, with a structure including a 20x leveraged WTI crude oil long position with unrealized gains of approximately $155,000, a 7x leveraged Brent crude oil long position with unrealized gains of approximately $130,000, and a total position value reaching approximately $11.55 million.

March 20, a prediction market shows two high win-rate addresses invested $9,700 in the "Will the U.S. military invade Iran" event, choosing "No," with the current probability of "No" at 40%. Trump stated during a meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister that he would not dispatch U.S. troops, while the Defense Secretary reiterated U.S. military objectives. Trader behavior indicates short-term arbitrage rather than bets on the actual occurrence of the event.

March 20th, prediction platforms show the probability of the United States confirming the existence of extraterrestrials before 2027 has risen to 17%. The White House-registered "aliens.gov" currently has no content. Trump announced plans to declassify UFO-related files, with the Secretary of Defense confirming they are under review, though no timeline was disclosed. Former officials claim the government possesses numerous unpublished visual evidence.

Gate News сообщает, что 19 марта согласно мониторингу Lookonchain некоторый адрес открыл длинные позиции по 33 токенам, но открыл короткую позицию по TRUMP.