Opinion: The changing demand structure of Bitcoin is reshaping its cyclical behavior.

On November 18, Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) stated that Bitcoin long-term holders typically accumulate during a Bear Market and distribute during a bull run, forming a “cup-shaped” cyclical pattern. This round of decline is slower, and long-term holders have not actively engaged in Buy the Dips, indicating that cyclical behavior is changing. The increase in institutional funds, structured products, and regulated investment vehicles is affecting the timing and methods of market demand. Recent market caution has suppressed Spot buying pressure, and there has even been noticeable selling pressure in the past two weeks. In the long term, a Bitcoin Bear Market may still occur, but its characteristics may rely more on valuation, investment directives, and risk frameworks, rather than panic and euphoria. The participation of professional capital may create a more stable bottom for the market, but downside risks still exist. Future price movement will be less influenced by panic and euphoria, and more dependent on how professional capital determines Position size and Build a Position timing.