Bitcoin Value Trend Research: Exploring the Value Evolution Code in Four Halving Events

Bitcoin Halving Mechanism and Inflation Rate

Bitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. The halving mechanism, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the block reward for miners by half. As of 2025, after the fourth halving event, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin has decreased to 0.782%, lower than that of gold (1.5%-2%) and most developed countries. This scarcity further highlights Bitcoin's deflationary nature and its potential as a store of value.

Historical Halving Cycle Patterns

An analysis of the four halving events from 2012 to 2024 reveals a consistent three-phase pattern:

1. Price increase before halving
2. Consolidation after halving
3. Major bull run 6-18 months post-halving

The 2024 halving has shown a relatively modest increase compared to previous cycles. However, historical data suggests that the real explosive growth window may open between 2025 and 2026.

Long-term Value Support

Bitcoin's core value is built upon several fundamental aspects:

1. Scarcity (21 million coin limit)
2. Decentralized Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism
3. Anti-inflationary model
4. Advanced cryptographic technology

As global fiat currencies face credibility challenges, Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" and its hedging properties are becoming increasingly mature.

Market Data Comparison

Between 2020 and 2025, Bitcoin's total market capitalization grew significantly. Currently, a large portion of the total supply is in circulation. Compared to major countries' inflation rates, Bitcoin's inflation rate demonstrates a significant advantage.

Future Potential and Challenges

While the article proposes the possibility of Bitcoin becoming a financial infrastructure for interplanetary civilization, it also acknowledges short-term regulatory risks. In the long term, Bitcoin's technological robustness and non-sovereign nature may continue to attract traditional capital allocation.

Bitcoin's Scientific Attributes for Long-term Value

1. Scarcity: Fixed supply of 21 million coins, supporting long-term appreciation.
2. Decentralization: PoW consensus mechanism ensures network neutrality.
3. Deflationary model: Counters fiat currency devaluation.
4. Technological prowess: Advanced cryptography and peer-to-peer network design.
5. Global financial order challenger: Offers an alternative consensus asset as the dollar trend shifts.
6. Potential interplanetary financial infrastructure: Suitable for future space exploration scenarios.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's four halving cycles have demonstrated a highly consistent market rhythm: pre-halving expectation-driven rises, short-term consolidation post-halving, followed by a major bull run. The 2024 halving reduced Bitcoin's annual inflation rate to 0.78%, lower than gold, further solidifying its status as a scarce asset. Against the backdrop of high inflation in the global fiat system, credit expansion, and growing debt deficits, Bitcoin's deflationary model and decentralized nature are attracting increasing attention and allocation from traditional capital.

While short-term market volatility persists and black swan events cannot be ignored, the long-term value proposition of Bitcoin is becoming clearer. It is not just a cryptocurrency but a new type of asset based on cryptography and consensus. In future cycles, its long-term value potential, ability to hedge against inflation, irreplaceable technological foundation, and further ecosystem development will continue to empower it, building the core value barriers that "digital gold" should possess.

FAQ

How often does Bitcoin halve?

Bitcoin halves approximately every four years, reducing the rate of new Bitcoin creation by 50%. This process is known as halving.

What does Bitcoin halving mean?

Bitcoin halving is when miner rewards are cut in half every 210,000 blocks. It reduces new Bitcoin creation and often leads to price increases.

Who holds the most BTC in the world?

Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's creator, is believed to hold the most BTC, estimated at 1,125,150 BTC. Other major holders include the US government and Tesla.