Ethereum Mirrors Past Rally Setup — Big Move Brewing?

• Ethereum open interest hits its highest level since January, signaling renewed trader activity.

• Price approaches realized cost basis near $2,300, a critical sentiment level.

• Technical indicators show early bullish momentum, with key resistance ahead.

Ethereum — ETH, is at a familiar crossroads, and seasoned traders can feel the shift. Price action now resembles the structure that appeared before previous major rallies. The Rainbow chart midpoint has returned to center stage, a level that has historically acted as a launchpad during strong recovery phases. Each prior revisit attracted momentum and fueled upside expansion. With price reclaiming strength and derivatives activity accelerating, market participants are asking whether another powerful move is quietly building beneath the surface.

🚨 ETHEREUM IS GOING TO SHOCK THE ENTIRE WORLD

The exact same pattern we’ve seen before every major Ethereum rally is here right now.

When Ethereum retests the middle of the Rainbow chart, it tends to explode.

It has just hit it once again, and it’s now retesting the same… pic.twitter.com/EKdagJD2vW

— Coinvo Trading (@CoinvoTrading) March 2, 2026

Open Interest Climbs as Bulls Regain Ground

Ethereum pushed above $2,100 on Wednesday as the broader crypto market recovered. That advance came with a noticeable increase in trader participation. Open interest climbed to 13.43 million ETH, marking the highest level since January 31. Since February 19 alone, traders have added roughly 1.2 million ETH in new positions. Rising open interest often reflects growing conviction, and this increase suggests that market participants are stepping back in rather than standing aside.

Liquidation data reinforces that narrative. Around $152 million in Ethereum positions closed over the past 24 hours, with short sellers accounting for $129 million of that figure. That imbalance shows that bears absorbed the bulk of the pressure during the recent move higher. When short liquidations dominate during a rally, momentum can accelerate as forced buying pushes price upward. At the same time, funding rates continue to swing between positive and negative readings.

On-chain metrics add another important layer. Ethereum now approaches the realized price near $2,300, which represents the average cost basis of holders. Historically, price returning to that region has triggered short-term distribution, as investors who endured prior declines often exit once they break even. However, a decisive move above $2,300 could alter sentiment meaningfully. Reclaiming that level may convert former resistance into support, strengthening the foundation for sustained upside.

Technical Structure Shows Early Strength

The daily chart reflects early constructive signals. Ethereum trades near $2,150 and holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which has flattened and begun turning higher. That shift often marks the transition from correction to early recovery. The broader trend still faces resistance from the declining 50-day EMA near $2,298, and bulls must clear that barrier to confirm stronger directional control.

Momentum indicators support gradual improvement. The Relative Strength Index reads 53, signaling strengthening upside momentum following recent oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator pushes toward overbought territory near 91, which suggests short-term pullbacks may occur. Such dips often refresh momentum within developing advances rather than signaling breakdowns.

Immediate support rests near $2,108, where recent consolidation aligns with the rising 20-day EMA. A sustained move above that level preserves the short-term bullish bias. A daily close below that zone would weaken recovery structure and shift attention toward deeper supports at $1,741 and $1,524. On the upside, resistance stands near $2,390, just beneath the 50-day EMA. If buyers extend control beyond that region, larger targets near $2,746 and $3,411 come into view.