Circle stock price hits a new high! Bernstein: Maintain $190 target price to "beat the market"

Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) closed Tuesday at $118.17, up 5.7% for the day. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $30.3 billion, with a year-to-date increase of about 49%. Bernstein reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating on CRCL in its latest client report and set a target price of $190.

Market Decoupling of Circle’s Stock Price: A Significant Divergence from the Cryptocurrency Market

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

Circle’s stock price has shown a clear decoupling from the overall cryptocurrency market. Since a major leverage liquidation event in October 2025, the crypto market has remained under pressure, but CRCL has taken a different path: since hitting a low of about $50 per share in early February, the stock has more than doubled.

The comparison with the same period’s benchmark indices is equally striking: this year, Circle’s stock has risen about 49%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which has remained roughly flat, and the Nasdaq 100, which has declined about 1%. This relative strength partly reflects the market’s reassessment of stablecoin business models and valuation boosts from improved regulatory environments.

Bernstein’s $190 Target: The Core Driver Accelerating Stablecoin Adoption

Bernstein’s optimistic outlook on Circle is based on the core judgment that stablecoin adoption is accelerating:

Regulatory Framework Clarification: The GENIUS Act passed in 2025 established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, clarifying reserve backing, disclosure requirements, and regulatory standards, significantly reducing compliance uncertainties for institutions entering the stablecoin space.

Expansion of Corporate Digital Dollar Applications: As the regulatory environment becomes clearer, more US companies are considering adopting stablecoins for payments, settlements, and liquidity management, directly expanding the potential market for USDC.

Circle’s Pioneer Positioning: As the issuer of USDC, Circle is the most compliant major stablecoin platform under US regulation and is poised to capture a larger market share during the regulatory tailwinds.

The $190 target price set by Bernstein generally reflects analyst expectations for the stock price over the next 12 months. This is an institutional analysis opinion and does not guarantee stock performance.

USDC’s Market Position and Institutional Trust Endorsement

(Source: DeFiLlama)

Circle’s core asset is the USDC stablecoin. According to DeFiLlama data, USDC is the second-largest stablecoin globally, with a circulation of about $78 billion, accounting for roughly a quarter of the global stablecoin market.

In terms of institutional partnerships, Circle has established a comprehensive backing system: BlackRock manages Circle’s reserve fund, holding most of the assets supporting USDC; BNY Mellon acts as the primary custodian of these reserves; investors include top institutions like Fidelity and Goldman Sachs. This deep integration with mainstream finance reflects increasing recognition from traditional financial institutions of stablecoin infrastructure.