Author: 137Labs
1. The Shift in National Structure Behind Power Transition
Iran’s politics entered a highly sensitive phase around 2026. The change in the highest authority not only altered the personnel composition of leadership but also concentrated long-standing institutional changes. The appointment of Mujtaba Khamenei to the core of the supreme power is seen by many observers as a landmark indicator of Iran’s political structure tightening.
Legally, Iran’s state system remains based on religious authority. According to the constitution, the Expert Council is responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader and overseeing his duties. However, the system does not rely solely on these formal procedures. Religious legitimacy, military attitudes, elite alliances, and national security conditions often jointly determine the ultimate direction of power. Especially in the context of war and regional conflicts, maintaining regime continuity is often prioritized over procedural formalities.
This political reality has led Iran’s power structure to gradually evolve into a complex form. Religious institutions still provide the institutional framework and ideological language, but security agencies are increasingly influential in governance. The military not only defends the country but also plays a key role in political stability and policy implementation. This emerging power pattern is shifting from traditional theocratic politics toward a more securitized state structure.
Mujtaba has long been at the center of this structure. His political influence did not appear suddenly but was accumulated over years of power operations. Maintaining close ties to the Supreme Leader’s office, networks of conservatives, and stable relationships among key institutions have allowed him to sustain influence within the system.
This context indicates that Iran’s succession issues are often not just about individual capability or religious status but are closely linked to the stability of the national structure. The Supreme Leader is both a religious symbol and a coordinator of state machinery. Power transitions thus reflect shifts in institutional focus rather than merely personnel changes.
2. The Institutional Status and Political Influence of the Revolutionary Guards
The status of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) within Iran’s political system has undergone profound change. Originally established to safeguard the revolution’s achievements and national security, its role has gradually expanded into broader political and economic domains.
In terms of security, the IRGC handles intelligence, counter-espionage, and strategic defense. Its military capabilities are used not only for national defense but also play an important role in regional affairs. Simultaneously, the organization participates in domestic political stability efforts and possesses strong organizational mobilization capacity during crises.
Economically, the IRGC has also expanded significantly. Its affiliated enterprises are involved in numerous infrastructure projects and energy industries, with a presence in construction, communications, transportation, and more. These economic activities provide the organization with resources and further enhance its institutional influence.
This development has altered the balance of power in Iran’s politics. Religious institutions still hold formal supreme authority, but governance increasingly depends on the enforcement capabilities of security agencies. The military’s involvement emphasizes discipline and stability in decision-making.
Mujtaba’s long-standing ties to this security system give him a special position within the power structure. A 2019 U.S. Treasury sanctions document noted that although he has not held official positions through elections or appointments, he has assumed some power functions in practice. This reveals that Iran’s top-level politics rely heavily on informal mechanisms based on trust and personal networks.
As the IRGC’s role in the state deepens, the relationship between political leaders and security systems becomes crucial. Power succession is thus not only an internal decision within religious institutions but also depends on the attitude and support of the military system.
3. Resource Allocation System and Political Power Integration
Iran’s economy features extensive asset networks controlled by religious foundations and quasi-official organizations. These entities are formally charities or social organizations, but in reality, they control vast economic resources.
The foundation system operates across real estate, industry, financial services, and commercial investments. Its revenues are not fully integrated into the national treasury but are managed within independent organizational structures. This mechanism allows some state resources to be reallocated within the system.
This system plays a significant role in Iran’s politics. Economic interests are often closely tied to political alliances. Organizations controlling resources serve both economic functions and help maintain political stability. As a result, governance and economic interests are highly intertwined.
The U.S. Treasury’s sanctions on the “Oppressed Foundation” indicate that this organization and its subsidiaries influence key Iranian industries and maintain close ties with the core circle of the Supreme Leader. It is also noted that some politicians or their relatives have long used foundation assets, paying rent well below market rates.
These details suggest that in Iran’s system, wealth is not merely private property but part of the political structure. Economic resources flow through foundations, affiliated companies, and proxy relationships at various levels.
In this environment, overseas asset allocation has become a sensitive issue. If political elites are suspected of preserving wealth through foreign investments, public opinion often links this to domestic economic pressures. The focus is not only on the scale of assets but also on whether resource distribution aligns with political narratives.
Additionally, cross-border assets sometimes serve risk management functions. Under long-term sanctions and currency instability, overseas investments can act as a means of capital preservation. The relationship between political power and economic resources thus becomes more complex.
4. Sanctions Environment and Digital Financial Channels
International sanctions have continuously impacted Iran’s financial system. Some banks have been excluded from the global financial communication system, and traditional cross-border payment channels face significant restrictions. Trade settlement and international financing are thus challenging.
In this context, digital assets are gradually entering Iran’s economy. Cryptocurrencies can transfer value without relying on traditional banking systems, making them practically useful in sanctioned economies.
The Iranian government has permitted some cryptocurrency mining activities and explored using digital assets for trade settlement. With the development of trading platforms and over-the-counter markets, a local crypto ecosystem is gradually forming.
Digital assets in Iran’s financial structure mainly serve three functions. First, as a supplement to cross-border payments, providing alternative options in some trade transactions. Second, as a capital transfer tool, offering new pathways for fund flows under financial restrictions. Third, as a risk diversification method, used for asset preservation during economic volatility.
On-chain transactions are not entirely anonymous but reduce dependence on banks. For sanctioned countries, this is highly significant.
Meanwhile, regional commercial hubs play an important role in capital flows. The Gulf region has long been a key node in Iran’s trade network. Commercial agents, OTC traders, and offshore companies form a complex business system.
In this structure, digital assets increasingly integrate with traditional trade networks. On-chain funds can quickly transfer to offshore nodes and then be exchanged for fiat currency or assets via OTC markets. Financial activities thus combine online and offline elements.
5. Future Forms of Iran’s Power Structure
Combining political, economic, and financial changes, Iran’s national structure is showing new characteristics.
Security agencies’ role in governance continues to strengthen. Military and intelligence systems not only defend the country but also exert significant influence on political stability and economic activities. Decision-making processes are becoming more centralized.
Economic resources increasingly depend on foundations and quasi-official organizations for distribution. These entities are both economic actors and key to maintaining political alliances.
The financial system is gradually forming a multi-layered framework. Traditional banking, regional trade networks, and digital asset channels together constitute the flow of funds. Different financial tools play roles in various scenarios.
Within this institutional framework, political leaders are not only symbolic national representatives but also coordinators among multiple power networks. Religious legitimacy, security agency support, and resource allocation capacity jointly determine their political standing.
Mujtaba’s position is at the intersection of these networks. His influence is not isolated but part of Iran’s long-term power evolution. Religious authority, military strength, economic resources, and cross-border financial systems are interconnected within this structure, shaping the country’s governance approach.
This combination imparts new features to Iran’s politics: while institutional legitimacy remains expressed through religious language, state operations increasingly rely on security agencies and complex resource networks. Iran’s future development will largely depend on how this structure continues to evolve and how internal society and external environments influence it.
