Cardano Price at Risk of 25% Decline Despite Adoption by Swiss Supermarkets

On March 5, 2026, Cardano (ADA) was officially accepted for payments at 137 SPAR supermarkets across Switzerland, marking a significant step forward in expanding the practical use of this coin. At the same time, the total value locked (TVL) in the Cardano ecosystem surged by 23% in just 12 days.

However, despite positive fundamental signals, technical models indicate a potential downside of up to 25% in the near future.

Cardano Forms a “Bear Flag” Pattern After 50% Drop

Since early February, ADA’s price has been moving within an upward channel, with fluctuations between two parallel, ascending trendlines. At first glance, this appears positive, indicating an uptrend.

However, the context of this pattern is negative. The rising channel appeared shortly after ADA experienced a sharp 50% decline from its early January peak. In technical analysis, a rising channel following a significant drop is often seen as a “bear flag” — a continuation pattern signaling further decline rather than a reversal to an uptrend.

Although this pattern resembles a “flag,” the extended duration of the price movement reduces the accuracy of this theory. Nonetheless, the hypothesis of a continued downtrend remains valid.

During the trading within this channel, ADA increased approximately 42% from its low, attracting investors who believed the market had bottomed out and was beginning to recover. Currently, ADA’s price is hovering near the lower trendline — an important support level. If this support is broken, the recent rally could turn into a “bull trap” for investors who entered expecting prices to continue rising.

Cardano Price Structure | Source: TradingViewAccording to technical analysis, if the channel breaks downward, the target for further decline could be up to 25% from the current price, pushing ADA down to around $0.17. The first support level on the way down is $0.20 — a key psychological level where buying interest may emerge.

Divergence and Unusual Activity of ADA Weaken Price Outlook

Not only is the rising channel pattern signaling potential downside, but momentum indicators are also flashing negative signals.

From January 21 to March 10, ADA formed a lower high, unable to surpass the previous peak. However, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) recorded a higher high during the same period. This is a sign of “hidden bearish divergence” — a warning that the downward momentum may continue. This phenomenon reflects that, although RSI momentum appears to be increasing, the actual price action is weakening.

Cardano RSI Divergence | Source: TradingViewOn-chain data further supports the bearish scenario. The “age classification” index, which tracks activity of old and new coins, showed a sudden spike. Throughout March, this index remained around 95.4 million. However, on March 12, it suddenly jumped to 115.4 million before sharply dropping to 30.86 million.

ADA Spent | Source: SantimentThis indicates a large amount of ADA was moved after long periods of dormancy. This sudden increase often suggests that investors are transferring coins to exchanges in preparation to sell.

Strong Fundamentals but Difficult to Overcome Technical Pressure

Although technical signals lean toward a bearish trend, the fundamental foundation of Cardano remains solid. The acceptance of payments at SPAR supermarkets is a major milestone, opening up practical application potential for ADA in everyday life.

Furthermore, the launch of the Midnight Privacy mainnet at the end of March will support secure transactions for businesses, adding value to the Cardano ecosystem. The introduction of USDCx — a stablecoin backed by Circle — on February 27 also brings new liquidity. Additionally, the integration of LayerZero, a cross-chain messaging protocol, opens opportunities to access the $80 billion liquidity pool from other blockchains.

However, despite the 23% increase in DeFi TVL over more than 10 days, reaching $142 million, this figure remains small compared to the $9.7 billion market cap. This suggests that the market is valuing Cardano based on future expectations rather than current real-world usage.

To reverse the downtrend, buyers need to close ADA above $0.31 on daily candles. This would weaken the current bearish divergence signals. If not achieved, ADA’s downward path will likely continue. A 25% decline could bring the price down to $0.19 or $0.20 — near Fibonacci support levels.

While ADA’s acceptance at SPAR supermarkets is a positive sign for the future, in the short term, technical factors will primarily shape the price direction.

Mr. Giáo