The prediction market is gradually converging on the end date of the US–Iran conflict around mid-2026, with data from Polymarket showing the largest betting volume concentrated in June. The probability of ending in March remains low, then gradually increases from late April, May, reaching a peak in June. This adjustment occurs alongside rising political pressure: on March 17, Joe Kent resigned, reportedly due to disagreements over the direction of the war, reflecting internal tensions.
On the diplomatic front, according to Axios, the US and Iran have resumed direct communication—though not official negotiations yet, it’s an early sign of de-escalation. Economic pressures have also shortened the timeline, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices above $100, increasing the risk of global inflation. Amid cautious allies and growing domestic opposition, the market expects the US to declare victory and withdraw by mid-2026.
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