Visa Bets on AI Payment Revolution: Smart Agents May Reshape Trillion-Dollar Market Landscape

Gate News reports that on March 18, Visa Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell stated that AI-powered “smart networks” are one of the biggest opportunities in his over 20 years in the payments industry. This model automates search, comparison, decision-making, and payment processes through AI agents, reshaping traditional e-commerce and payment systems.

Data shows that by 2030, AI agents are expected to handle 15% to 25% of e-commerce transactions in the U.S., amounting to $300 billion to $500 billion, compared to only about $3 billion in 2025. Amazon’s AI assistant Rufus has validated this trend, with 250 million active users and a roughly 60% increase in conversion rates for AI shopping.

Visa believes AI payments will drive industry growth in four ways. First, by reducing payment failure rates, as AI can dynamically optimize payment routes and automatically retry transactions to improve success rates. Second, by promoting growth in high-frequency small transactions, further increasing transaction density. Third, by accelerating the digitalization of B2B payments, reducing efficiency losses from manual processes. Lastly, by expanding overall economic activity through increased efficiency.

However, competition is intensifying. Mastercard has launched Agent Pay to develop an AI payment ecosystem, shifting market focus to who can dominate the underlying infrastructure. Meanwhile, AI agents may prefer lower-cost payment methods, such as account-to-account transfers or stablecoin settlements, which could pressure traditional card networks’ fee models.

On the security front, Visa has introduced the “Trusted Agent Protocol” to verify AI agent identities and prevent fraud. As e-commerce fraud is projected to reach $131 billion by 2030, trusted identity verification becomes a critical infrastructure.

Industry data shows that approximately 30% to 45% of U.S. consumers have used generative AI for shopping decisions, and demand for AI talent in the payments industry is significantly higher than in traditional financial institutions. As AI agents gradually take control of transaction entry points, competition in the payments ecosystem is shifting from channel battles to technology and standards development.