The risk of a US recession is nearly 50% — Will Bitcoin repeat its 2020 rally?

Bitcoin Faces Recession Test

As the market bets on the U.S. economy entering a recession in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new challenge — will it repeat the recovery seen after the 2020 crisis?

Recession Forecast and Impact on Risk Assets

Recent statistical models, summarized by Axel Adler Jr. (CryptoQuant), show the probability of a recession in the next 12 months approaching 50% (Moody’s ~48.6%, Goldman ~30%). Market predictions (Kalshi) also indicate a 36% chance — the highest since September 2025.

One factor increasing risk is geopolitical tensions related to the U.S.–Iran conflict, which puts upward pressure on oil prices. Mosaic Asset Company notes that when oil prices jump 50% above long-term trends, history suggests it’s often a sign of or during a recession.

The Relationship Between Oil, Inflation, and Recession

A sharp rise in oil prices leads to higher headline inflation; Mosaic estimates that every +$10 per barrel could push inflation up by about 0.20% or more. Therefore, oil shocks may force central banks to maintain tightening policies longer, putting pressure on growth and increasing recession risks.

Bitcoin — Linked to Oversold Stocks

Bitcoin has limited experience with historical recessions but showed strong recovery after the 2020 crash. This year, BTC has a higher correlation with U.S. stocks; this could mean a sharp decline in risk assets might drag BTC down, but a “relief bounce” could occur if capital flows back into risk assets once conditions stabilize.

Investor Scenarios

If a recession occurs and BTC drops sharply, two possible scenarios: (1) BTC hits a bottom and rebounds like in 2020 — creating an opportunity for the next bull run; (2) BTC continues to be pressured by liquidity issues and systemic sell-offs. Sentiment indicators and oversold levels may provide early signs of short-term recovery.