Nasdaq 100 Sends Rare Signal: 100 Days Below Highs, History Shows Potential 17% Rise in a Year

Gate News reports that the NASDAQ-100 has cumulatively declined about 6.6% since 2026 and has not touched its historical high for 100 consecutive trading days, marking the longest retracement period since 2023. However, historical data suggests that this structure often corresponds to a mid-term repair window, and market sentiment may be approaching a turning point.

Research firm Kobeissi Letter notes that the index is currently still within 10% of its historical high, a pattern that has only occurred six times since 1985. Past statistics indicate that under similar circumstances, there is an 80% probability the index will be flat or rise one month later, with an average increase of about 1.1%; two months later, it also maintains an 80% probability of rising, with an average increase of about 2.3%. Looking at a longer time frame, all cases have resulted in gains one year later, with an average return of 17%.

There have also been marginal changes in funding. Goldman Sachs expects that U.S. pension funds will net buy about $13.8 billion in stocks by the end of this quarter, a scale significantly above historical norms. Due to recent deviations in stock and bond allocations from target ratios, institutions are rebalancing by reducing bond holdings and increasing stock allocations, which may provide additional liquidity support for tech stocks.

On the fundamental side, Jurrien Timmer points out that the “seven major tech stocks” continue to maintain robust profit growth, forming a key support for the index. Considering the weight of these stocks in the index, their performance directly impacts the overall trend.

Although uncertainties remain in the macro environment, including interest rate paths and global risk events, the NASDAQ-100 index has gradually accumulated conditions for a rebound when observing historical statistics, capital flows, and profit structures. Whether a rise will start immediately in the short term still needs to be verified, but the probability of mid-term repair is increasing.