Reuters Opinion: If the U.S. military launches a ground attack, Iran could cause widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.

BlockBeats message, March 30: Reuters commodities and energy columnist Clyde Russell posted that a month after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, the global oil, refined products, and LNG supply markets have already entered a “second-worst scenario.”

The article also predicted the worst-case scenario for this round of conflict:

It would be a situation in which the conflict escalates rapidly—through missiles and drones, Iran would cause widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, including oil pipelines, refineries, processing facilities, and export terminals. The most likely trigger for such action would be a U.S. ground forces attempt to seize and control territory controlled by Iran, such as the Kharg Island oil terminal and some small islands in the Strait of Hormuz.

Deploying ground forces is an option that U.S. President Trump is reportedly considering, and U.S. forces in the region are also continuing to build up. But even if a military invasion were to succeed tactically, it would become meaningless if it triggers large-scale destruction of energy infrastructure—because that would drive an already severe market crisis into an unprecedented global energy disaster.

Judging by Brent crude futures, the market is still largely betting that the situation will cool down and ultimately restore normal transport through the Strait of Hormuz. In Monday’s Asian early session, Brent futures rose 2.7% to about $115.55 per barrel, up from the $112.57 close on March 27. Since Brent closed at $72.48 per barrel on Feb. 27 (the day before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran), Brent’s price has risen cumulatively by 59%.