Geopolitics

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Global markets faced turmoil after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, causing volatility in oil, gold, and crypto. Bitcoin briefly plunged but recovered, while energy price shocks raise inflation concerns, affecting investor sentiment and market structure.

2026-03-03 16:30 to 16:45 (UTC), BTC experienced significant short-term volatility, with price ranges between 67485.3 and 68829.8 USDT, yielding a return of -1.60%, and an amplitude reaching 1.95%. At the edge of extreme panic and market bottom, investor attention continues to rise, and trading activity fluctuates with increased volatility. The main driver of this movement is leveraged unwinding and long liquidations in the derivatives market. Data shows that the funding rate is negative (-0.0081%), with retail longs accounting for as much as 65%, indicating a market where "retail investors chase gains, while institutions are on the other side."

Iran's recent airstrikes on Gulf countries have sparked tensions with the United States, potentially prompting Gulf nations to unite in resistance and strengthen collective self-defense. The Gulf Cooperation Council held an emergency meeting, clearly defining red lines, demonstrating that Iran's attacks have actually deepened solidarity among the nations.

Author: Zen, PANews The global spotlight is on Iran and the Persian Gulf. The outside world often discusses Iran through two main narratives: military and regime risks, and energy and shipping disruptions. Mainstream media's immediate reports focus on military actions, oil and gas facilities, the Strait of Hormuz, and sharp fluctuations in financial markets. But beneath these grand narratives, if you zoom in on cities like Tehran, Mashhad, and Avaris and look at individual ordinary people, you'll find that during times of heightened tension, the most important things are life and asset safety. After the US and Israel launched the attack, the outflow of assets from Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Nobitex, surged by approximately 700% within just a few minutes. A Chainalysis report also confirmed that within hours after the attack, the hourly trading volume of crypto assets within Iran rapidly increased.

As the US-Israel coalition's military actions against Iran escalate, Iran's "shadow economy" becomes a focal point. Iran has legalized Bitcoin mining and is utilizing cheap electricity for mining to bypass US dollar sanctions, with the mining scale potentially reaching $7.8 billion and being heavily relied upon by the military. The rial has depreciated by over 96%, and the stablecoin USDT has become a new tool for trade, while the public is turning to Bitcoin to protect their assets.

With the US and Israel conducting airstrikes on Iran, the prediction platform Polymarket has become an instant market, with trading volume exceeding $500 million, attracting a large number of traders. Profiters and losers coexist, and allegations of insider trading have also emerged, sparking debates over market transparency and ethics. This event highlights the advantages and disadvantages of prediction markets.

Amid military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, the US Bitcoin spot ETF attracted a net inflow of $458 million, pushing Bitcoin prices close to $70,000. Institutional investors believe that geopolitical risks are short-term shocks, with market leverage levels declining, and no systemic risk being triggered. The options market also shows a calm atmosphere, reflecting traders' preference for short-term hedging rather than long-term bearishness.

Last week, the market was affected by the US-Iran conflict, leading to increased volatility in gold, oil, and the crypto markets. BTC experienced fluctuations during the correction, ETH performed relatively weakly, and NEAR rose approximately 39.62%. Fund flow data indicates market rebalancing, with Polymarket driving up Polygon transaction fees. The report will provide an in-depth analysis of trends and market data.

Kevin Lee analyzes the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market in the article, emphasizing that conflicts do not change the fundamental logic of the market; the key lies in their impact on inflation and central bank policies. In the short term, oil and gold experience significant fluctuations, but if energy supplies remain stable, the market will gradually recover. In the long run, inflation data and policy expectations are more important, and emotional decision-making incurs high costs. Understanding market patterns is crucial for managing volatility.

U.S. lawmakers face renewed pressure as negotiations over stablecoin rewards continue without resolution after a March 1 deadline. Banks oppose interest-like rewards while crypto firms seek flexibility, leading to ongoing discussions and pending Senate Banking Committee actions.

Wintermute stated that Iran's geopolitical conflicts are causing volatility in risk assets, leaving the cryptocurrency market fragile. After a brief rebound, it remains under pressure. Despite ETF inflows, institutional participation is noticeably insufficient, and the bear market trend for altcoins continues. Investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor the developments of the conflict and their impact on energy costs and interest rate expectations.

Multiple mining experts have pointed out that Iran's hash rate accounts for less than 1%, and even if mining activities are interrupted, it will not affect the security of the Bitcoin network. They refuted the panic rumors circulating in the community, believing that the Bitcoin network is operating stably, and Iran's crypto economy is gradually expanding under sanctions.

Bitcoin has gained over 2%, defying a global risk-off sentiment sparked by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict that has seen most stocks plunge. Analysts say it’s the best time to buy BTC as the US Fed is going to start printing billions of dollars to support the war, as it has in

Most Bitcoin investors from the last two years are in loss, but this could signal buying opportunities for disciplined traders. Short-term holders are showing patience despite geopolitical tension, suggesting panic selling may be fading. Monitoring exchange inflows is key—declining losses h

Tonight's Lantern Festival, Taiwan is also witnessing a once-in-46-years "Total Lunar Eclipse Blood Moon" phenomenon, contrasting with the turbulence in the financial markets. Due to the "Iran Shock," the US stock market was affected, with the S&P 500 reaching 6,775 points and the VIX soaring. The Taiwan stock market also faced foreign selling pressure. Studies show that lunar phases influence market sentiment, with stock returns slightly lower during the full moon.

Turkey's proposed 10% tax on crypto income marks a shift towards regulation amid fiscal challenges. While it offers a competitive base rate, the presidential discretion to adjust it creates uncertainty, potentially impacting trading behavior and investor confidence.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jinshi, Saira Malik, an investment analyst at New York-based firm Nuven, stated in a research report that the widespread impact of the US and Israel's attacks on Iran remains to be seen. She believes that global markets may experience more volatility, and the far-reaching effects will become clearer over time. While the surge in oil prices could push inflation higher, Malik expects this will not affect the Federal Reserve's policy in the short term. She maintains her forecast of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year and believes that the 10-year US Treasury yield will fluctuate around 4%.