CPI just printed hotter than expected—0.4% vs 0.3% forecast, and year-over-year hit 2.9%. At the same time, jobless claims jumped to 263K, way above the 235K print. Classic stagflation recipe.

BTC feeling the pressure: down 0.5% to $113.7K as markets digest the data. Treasury yields dropped 5bps to 4.00%, and gold recovered to $3,675. The Fed's in a pickle now—sticky inflation but a weakening labor market.

Bottom line: Fed's still expected to cut 25bps next week (92% odds per CME FedWatch), but the 50bps scenario is basically off the table. Markets are bracing for a slower easing cycle, which explains why risk assets are treading water.

Watch the FOMC meeting—this data just raised the stakes.