The data "one positive and one negative" resembles political maneuvering: Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations (soothing the public), while the unemployment rate jumped (putting pressure on the Fed), creating an overall deliberately neutral stance, shifting the choice and responsibility back to the Fed and the market.

The probability of interest rate cuts is rising in the short term (as priced in by CME), but essentially it is to make the Fed take the blame for the government shutdown, which is in complete contradiction to the hawkish stance taken by several FOMC voting members this week.