#比特币波动性 Recently saw a fascinating viewpoint: $BTC this wave of fall is due to the 120,000 coins of BCH being confiscated, the myth of Decentralization has collapsed, so it needs to drop to zero.

I laughed out loud.

According to this logic, Bitcoin should have died when the Silk Road was taken down, right? The coins confiscated by the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom piled up like a mountain, yet the coin price still surged. To put it simply, Chen Zhi's incident was just an internal explosion, it has nothing to do with the industry itself.

The truth is actually so simple—buy orders have disappeared.

If you look at the order book, you'll know that the buy orders are as thin as paper, a typical state of liquidity dead silence. The dollars in the entire market are evaporating rapidly, and institutions are starting to madly pull back cash. Amazon and Meta suddenly issued bonds to fund AI infrastructure, a kind of operation we haven't seen in three years. What does this indicate? It indicates that these tech giants' cash flow is barely able to keep up with the speed at which AI is burning money. As a result, Meta was slapped in the face by the capital market, and its stock price has almost wiped out the gains for the entire year. Even leading companies are starting to run low on cash; how can the market not panic?

The big crash on October 11 shattered market confidence, and it still hasn't recovered. The lowering expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the four-year cycle transmission are accelerators, but not the main cause.

Where does the selling pressure mainly come from? Bitcoin ETF, especially iBIT, is experiencing large-scale outflows. As for those who say "Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset," that's nonsense. Bitcoin has always been a reserve asset and an inflation hedge, but it is definitely not a safe haven. A safe haven is a refuge for funds to flow into during panic, while Bitcoin's rise and fall depend on dollar liquidity—when the dollar is loose, it rises; when the dollar tightens, it falls. To put it bluntly, it's just a reservoir for the dollar.

As long as the market liquidity is sufficient and the buying pressure is strong, even if there is a large order of ten thousand coins at a price of 100,000 dollars, who would dare to dump it? The bears have to chew through that wall first before they can talk. So don't bring up nonsense like "black market can't launder money causing a crash"; that's just the speculation of outsiders. $ETH