2025-12-04 03:41:00

#数字货币市场洞察 "Polymarket Data: Hassett's Probability of Becoming Fed Chair Soars to 86%"

The latest data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that Kevin Hassett now has an 86% chance of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, far ahead of other contenders. Hassett, a former White House economic advisor, has publicly expressed support for dovish monetary policy multiple times before.

The market generally believes that if Hassett does take the helm at the Fed, monetary policy may shift to a more dovish stance. History tells us that whenever policy expectations loosen, risk assets are usually the first to sense opportunity—could the crypto market be on the verge of another explosive cycle?

Of course, there’s still some distance from prediction to reality. But smart money is already positioning early, since the window for policy shifts can be fleeting. Do you think this rally can take off?

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

15 Likes

Reward
15
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MidnightTrader

· 12-04 21:39

86% is a bit questionable, I don't really believe that probability. Politics can change in an instant, and last time Polymarket also got it wrong. Smart money is indeed making moves, but retail investors following the trend are the ones truly losing money. If easing comes, coins can rise, but is this a real rally or just another round of retail investors getting fleeced? Hard to say. Wait until the dust settles. Anyone rushing in now is just easy prey.

View OriginalReply0

TokenSleuth

· 12-04 04:10

An 86% probability sounds really ridiculous. Can Polymarket's data be trusted... It feels like gambling. A dovish Fed = the money printer starts up, and when that happens, you really have to get in. Wait, what did this guy say before? I seem to remember his attitude kept changing. What early positioning? This is just a way to fleece retail investors. Every time an easing policy comes, crypto soars—I've seen this play out too many times.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoGoldmine

· 12-04 04:07

The 86% figure is indeed worth paying attention to, but the key is still the difficulty adjustment cycle—there are still several months between the implementation of loose policies and the actual release of liquidity. From my mining earnings data, ROI for entering the market now is indeed improving, but should we wait until the policy is officially in place? It's true that smart money gets in early, but don't forget that historically, there have always been people who get left behind right before things take off. Instead of guessing whether it will take off, it's better to look at the growth curve of the hashrate network—that's a more honest indicator. If this wave really takes off, my mining machine utilization rate could improve a lot, but it's still too early to call it a breakout.

View OriginalReply0

MetaMuskRat

· 12-04 04:01

An 86% probability feels a bit overestimated. Is Polymarket’s prediction really that accurate? A dovish Fed sounds good, but it’s still early for that to actually happen. Smart money is already buying the dip—are we late to the party again? Will it really take off this time, or are we going to get trapped at the top again? Honestly, I have no idea. Every time there’s an easing policy, crypto prices soar. This pattern is way too familiar.

View OriginalReply0

MEVictim

· 12-04 03:56

86%? Really... I feel like this data is always exaggerated. These odds on Polymarket are easily manipulated by whales dumping large amounts. A dovish Fed = money printing = BTC takes off, I believe that logic, but the question is whether it will actually happen. Rather than focusing on predictions, it's better to see if there's a buying opportunity right now. It's not too late to jump in after the official announcement, everyone. Smart money? Heh, that's just a fancy way of saying they're bagholders for bottom fishers. Just use this probability data as a reference, don't take it too seriously.

View OriginalReply0

DeFiVeteran

· 12-04 03:52

86% sounds intimidating, but who can really say how accurate Polymarket's predictions are... However, once the easing expectations come out, it’s indeed a good opportunity to buy the dip.

View OriginalReply0

Trending TopicsView More
#JoinGrowthPointsDrawToWiniPhone17
270.8K Popularity
#DecemberMarketOutlook
67.27K Popularity
#PostonSquaretoEarn$50
8.58K Popularity
#LINKETFToLaunch
9.99K Popularity
#SharingMy100xToken
10.01K Popularity

Hot Gate FunView More

1
minerminer
MC:$3.5KHolders:1
0.00%
2
HCGHCG
MC:$3.51KHolders:2
0.09%
3
8888888open the door
MC:$3.47KHolders:1
0.00%
4
GG3GG3
MC:$3.52KHolders:2
0.00%
5
GAMEDGAMED
MC:$3.51KHolders:1
0.00%

Sitemap