#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: Bitcoin is currently in a "strong rebound driven by macro factors and capital inflows." The price has surged strongly from the low on December 1, continuously breaking through multiple key resistance levels. The next key target is the previous important platform area at 95,000-96,000.
2️⃣ Capital Flows & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics Capital Flows (Core Driver): The strong return of institutional funds is the cornerstone of the rebound. Last week, global cryptocurrency ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.1 billion, the highest in seven weeks, reversing the previous four consecutive weeks of outflows. Of this, the US market saw an inflow of $994 million. This clearly shows that "smart money" is re-entering the market. Macro & Regulatory: Multiple positive factors are working together: (1) The SEC Chairman mentioned a new regulatory framework with "innovative exemptions," increasing expectations for policy clarity; (2) Vanguard Group opened crypto ETF trading, lowering the threshold for institutional participation; (3) Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December continue to rise.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: If you want to go long, do not chase the rally. Patience for a pullback is the best approach. If there is a clear stagnation candlestick pattern (such as a double top or bearish engulfing) in the 95,000-96,000 area and signs of weakness appear, you can consider going short. Stop loss if 96,000 is decisively broken, take profit near the 1-hour oversold/overbought reversal zone.
4️⃣ Risk Warning
Sustainability of the rebound: The short-term increase has been too large, so pay attention to whether buying power can be sustained. If ETF inflows slow, the rebound may enter consolidation. Macro data disruptions: Upcoming US economic data this week (such as PCE inflation, non-farm payrolls) may affect rate cut expectations and cause volatility. Technical correction risk: When reaching key resistance levels (such as $95,000-$96,000), profit-taking may occur.