Understanding at a Glance: BlackRock 2026 Global Investment Outlook

Core Logic First: Over the next 5-10 years, the world will shift from being "monetary-driven" to "fiscal capitalism", with geopolitics and AI becoming structural dominant forces, marking a transition from the "era of liquidity" to the "era of structural reshaping".

▶ Three Major Simultaneous Turning Points

1. Economic System: Shifting from "low inflation + low interest rates" to "high interest rates + high fiscal spending + high debt", with fiscal policy taking the lead and amplified interest rate volatility.

2. Geopolitics: Moving from unipolar globalization to a multi-centered, multi-bloc world; supply chains and capital flows are being restructured, and geopolitical risks are becoming long-term.

3. AI Technology: Short-term (1-3 years) capital expenditure boom (GPU/data centers/energy), mid- to long-term (5-10 years) gradual productivity improvements.

▶ 2026 Core Judgments

- Short-term (6-12 months): Increased macro volatility, uneven inflation, wider interest rate ranges, traditional stock-bond negative correlation breaks down.
- Mid-term (1-3 years): AI becomes the main theme, rising demand for data centers, electricity, and semiconductors, visible corporate AI ROI, gradual GDP growth.
- Long-term (5+ years): Asset pricing reshaped, equities rely on earnings growth, bond yields rise but not as a hedging tool, alternative assets become core.

▶ Asset Allocation Directions

- Tactical: Favor US equities (earnings + AI), Japanese equities (governance + valuation), private credit, infrastructure; neutral on European equities and A-shares; cautious on long-duration government bonds and emerging market currency debt.

- Strategic: Equities focused on US/Japan, technology/AI/semiconductors; bonds primarily for risk-adjusted yield; alternative assets (private credit/energy infrastructure, etc.) as essential choices.

▶ AI Investment Main Line
The core logic is "compute power × capability × electricity", with allocations consistent with tactical preferences; need to adapt to the new paradigm, anchor on profitability and alternative assets, and manage volatility and geopolitical risks.