Thursday’s market was interesting—the indexes closed with a doji, but trading volume dropped significantly.

The ChiNext and STAR Market can still rise by 1%, but nearly 4,000 stocks are falling. This is the true picture of the past few days: the broader market looks stable on the surface, but underneath, individual stocks are dropping sharply. Where’s the problem? Two words: shrinking volume. There’s no money entering the market, blue chips are still sucking up liquidity to prop up the index, so retail stocks can’t hold up.

To be honest, don’t have high expectations for the index right now. In a volatile market, it’s best to keep a light position and watch from the sidelines—wait for real incremental funds to enter before making a move.

From a technical perspective, there are some points worth noting. The key is whether the 10-day moving average can hold. The index has actually been hovering around the 10-day line for the past few days, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index have shown clear signs of rebounding after testing that level. Tomorrow is a key point—the 10-day line may start to turn upward, and the 10-day line for the Shanghai Composite will transition from sloping down to flattening out. From a bullish perspective, this is a positive signal.

But can the market really pick up? That still depends on market sentiment and capital willingness. The core logic hasn’t changed: as long as the 10-day line holds, there’s still a chance. If it falls below the 10-day line or the 3856 level, be ready for a retest of previous lows.

Right now, just be patient—don’t rush.