#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: Bitcoin is currently in an "extreme pattern of historical high volatility, with long leverage positions being liquidated." Prices reached historic highs driven by sentiment, but quickly pulled back due to massive profit-taking and excessive leverage collapse.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics Capital flow (market “blood transfusion”): Institutional funds show short-term divergence. Data shows that US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of nearly $15 million on Wednesday (December 4), breaking the previous streak of consecutive inflows. This indicates that some institutional investors chose to take profits at high prices. On-chain data (whale “bottom card” movements): Whale behavior is key going forward. Although today’s specific data is lacking, it can be inferred that during the price surge and pullback, the actions of long-term holders (whales)—whether they choose to hold, accumulate, or distribute—will determine the strength of the market bottom. Exchange dynamics (market “sentiment” thermometer): High-leverage longs suffered a “massacre.” In the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidations across the network reached $885.61 million, with Bitcoin accounting for $540 million and long liquidations making up over 72%. In a single hour, liquidations even reached $284 million. This clearly shows that the main driver of this downturn was forced liquidations of leveraged longs, creating a vicious cycle.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: Never catch the bottom. If there is a clear stagnation candlestick pattern (such as a double top or bearish engulfing) in the 95000-96000 area and weakness is detected, we may consider opening short positions. Stop loss if a solid break above 96000 occurs, take profit near the hourly mean reversion.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Risk of high-leverage liquidation contagion: Nearly $900 million in liquidations indicates that market leverage has not yet been cleared. If prices fall further, it could trigger another round of long stop-outs, leading to an irrational “longs killing longs” style flash crash. Risk of sentiment reversal: The market has just experienced a rapid switch from “extreme greed” to “extreme fear,” and sentiment is highly unstable. Any news or developments could trigger intense two-way volatility. Risk of macro expectation swings: The market is highly sensitive to Fed policy. If upcoming economic data or official comments weaken rate cut expectations, it could “add salt to the wound” for this fragile market.