Analyst: Bitcoin "risk-off model" indicates pullback risk, likelihood of further downside remains high

On December 6, despite the recent rebound in Bitcoin, CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-averse oscillation indicator remains close to the “high-risk” zone—a level that has historically signaled a market pullback and reduced the likelihood of a sustained upward trend. CryptoQuant’s “Risk Aversion Model” combines six indicators—downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market cap performance—to generate a data-driven assessment of market vulnerability. As the oscillator approaches 60 or enters the “high-risk” area, the risk of a pullback remains elevated. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also pointed out that the profit and loss score has dropped to -3, reflecting an extreme concentration of loss-making UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs). Historically, this level is typically associated with bear markets and prolonged cooling phases. The current drawdown of -32% exceeds the normal cycle pullback range (-20% to -25%) but has not yet reached the panic selling threshold (-50% to -70%), placing Bitcoin in a vulnerable “middle ground.” Adler stated that as long as macroeconomic conditions and on-chain profitability indicators fail to improve, even if the price stabilizes around $90,000, the likelihood of further downside remains high.