Next Week’s Macro Outlook: Highly Controversial Fed Rate Cut Approaching, Gold Enters Volatile Mode

AI Summary
As US economic data supports expectations of a Fed rate cut, investors are refocusing on risk assets. The Fed’s rate decision will be the main focus next week, with the market widely anticipating a rate cut and related economic data set to be released. Investors are optimistic about future policy easing.

According to PANews on December 6, as US economic data such as “ADP” and PCE largely support the expectation of a Fed rate cut next week, Wall Street’s fears have come and gone swiftly, and investors are returning to low-volatility, high-conviction bets on risk assets. The Fed’s rate decision will be the highlight of next week. Following recently weak US employment data, the market widely expects the Fed to lower rates.

Key events to watch in the coming week:
Tuesday 0:00 – US November NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Tuesday 23:00 – US October JOLTs job openings;
Wednesday 3:00 – FOMC releases rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections;
3:30 – Fed Chair Powell holds monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 21:30 – US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 and US September trade balance;
Friday 1:00 – Fed releases US household financial health data from the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report;
Friday 21:00 – 2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, speaks on the economic outlook;
21:30 – 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, delivers remarks;
Friday 23:35 – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat before the 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Chicago Fed.

The Fed’s September dot plot suggested two rate cuts in 2026. In contrast, the market now expects 63 basis points of easing in 2026, implying a higher probability of three rate cuts next year.