The party continues... but the "music" is starting to fade - Is the Bull Market over (Bull Market)? Top analysts say: No,
But get ready for a change of pace.
Major investment banks have released their forecasts for 2026, and the consensus is clear: US stocks are gearing up for another year of double-digit gains (Double-digit gains), with expectations that the S&P 500 will surpass the 7,500-point mark.
But the devil is always in the details... - What’s driving this optimism? Markets are betting on the “power trio” pushing things forward:
Easier policies: A bet on corporate tax cuts (worth $129 billion) and a more relaxed regulatory environment from the new US administration.
AI tailwinds: Despite concerns, the market still sees companies like Nvidia and other giants as the real engines of growth.
Low interest rates: Investors are pricing in 3-4 rate cuts next year, which means extra “oxygen” for the markets. - But... Watch out for the “slowdown” in the chart: The attached image tells us a truth that can’t be ignored.
We’re moving from the years of “runaway growth” (when gains surpassed 20% in 2023 and 2024), to a phase of “mature growth.”
The average forecast for 2026 is growth around 10%, clearly lower than the huge jumps we’ve gotten used to recently (16.6% in 2025 and 23.3% in 2024). - Clash of the titans: Who do we believe?
The very optimistic team (Deutsche Bank): sees the index at 8,000 points, betting that corporate profits will expand beyond just the tech sector.
The cautious team (Bank of America): sees the index at only 7,100 points, warning that we are “buying the dream” in AI without seeing real returns that justify this massive spending so far. - Bottom line: The market is still on an upward path, but it’s entering a phase that requires greater selectivity.
The days of “buy anything and it will go up” may be over.
We’re now entering a period of returning to normal rates.
Question for you: Do you lean toward Deutsche Bank’s optimistic camp, or Bank of America’s caution?
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Wall Street draws the 2026 roadmap:
The party continues... but the "music" is starting to fade
-
Is the Bull Market over (Bull Market)?
Top analysts say:
No,
But get ready for a change of pace.
Major investment banks have released their forecasts for 2026, and the consensus is clear: US stocks are gearing up for another year of double-digit gains (Double-digit gains), with expectations that the S&P 500 will surpass the 7,500-point mark.
But the devil is always in the details...
-
What’s driving this optimism?
Markets are betting on the “power trio” pushing things forward:
Easier policies:
A bet on corporate tax cuts (worth $129 billion) and a more relaxed regulatory environment from the new US administration.
AI tailwinds:
Despite concerns, the market still sees companies like Nvidia and other giants as the real engines of growth.
Low interest rates:
Investors are pricing in 3-4 rate cuts next year, which means extra “oxygen” for the markets.
-
But...
Watch out for the “slowdown” in the chart:
The attached image tells us a truth that can’t be ignored.
We’re moving from the years of “runaway growth” (when gains surpassed 20% in 2023 and 2024), to a phase of “mature growth.”
The average forecast for 2026 is growth around 10%, clearly lower than the huge jumps we’ve gotten used to recently (16.6% in 2025 and 23.3% in 2024).
-
Clash of the titans: Who do we believe?
The very optimistic team (Deutsche Bank): sees the index at 8,000 points,
betting that corporate profits will expand beyond just the tech sector.
The cautious team (Bank of America): sees the index at only 7,100 points, warning that we are “buying the dream” in AI without seeing real returns that justify this massive spending so far.
-
Bottom line: The market is still on an upward path, but it’s entering a phase that requires greater selectivity.
The days of “buy anything and it will go up” may be over.
We’re now entering a period of returning to normal rates.
Question for you: Do you lean toward Deutsche Bank’s optimistic camp, or Bank of America’s caution?
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