Economic Schizophrenia: America Is Living Two Different Realities

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Have you ever felt that the official numbers say one thing, while your personal experience tells a completely different story?
You’re not alone.

The US economy today is going through a rare case of “schizophrenia” we haven't seen in many years.

The chart in front of us reveals a historic gap between what’s happening “on paper” and what people feel “in reality”:

1. Hard Data ( - The Numerical Reality:
The black line is rising sharply, posting positive surprises at +22 points. These are the numbers that don’t lie: jobs )Nonfarm Payrolls(, GDP )GDP(, and industrial production.

The economy, “numerically,” is strong, stable, and growing beyond analysts’ expectations.
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2. Soft Data ) - The Emotional Reality:
The blue line is collapsing, posting negative surprises at -11 points.

These are the “sentiment” indicators: consumer confidence, small business optimism, and opinion polls.
People and businesses are feeling pessimistic, anxious, and uncertain about the future.
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What does this divergence mean?
We are witnessing a strange phenomenon: “The economy is strong, but people are miserable.” Usually, these lines move together.

But today, cumulative inflation (even if it’s slowed down) is still squeezing household budgets, geopolitical uncertainty is weighing on business sentiment, while the macro numbers keep rising, fueled by government spending and the strength of large corporations.
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Bottom line:
On Wall Street, there’s a saying: “Follow the money, not the feelings.”

So far, the markets (and asset owners) are the only winners in this equation, benefiting from the strength of “hard data” and ignoring the “gloom of sentiment.”

But history teaches us that this gap cannot last forever; either people’s feelings will improve to catch up with economic reality, or the economy will collapse to match people’s pessimism.
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In your opinion,
Which will win in the end:
Economic numbers or human emotions?

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