At 3 a.m. tonight, it could be the most critical night in the past few months.

According to the latest data from the FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in an over 86% probability of a rate cut in December—such a high expectation means either the capital really senses something, or there’s a collective bet on a big move. The question is, even if the rate cut really happens, what comes next? Powell’s statements have never been reassuring.

**Full timeline:**
At 3 a.m. on December 11, the interest rate decision will be announced. The market is generally betting on a cut from 4% to 3.75%. If that really happens, it would be a pretty good way to wrap up the year. But the real highlight is Powell’s speech half an hour later—if he says something like “remain flexible”…