Next week, global central banks are gearing up for major moves. Should you hold onto your coins or cash out?

The Fed, Reserve Bank of Australia, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Canada will all announce rate decisions this week. Add to that China’s November CPI and social financing data, and capital flows could shift instantly. Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are especially vulnerable to these kinds of macro changes.

Here’s my take: out of all these events, the Fed is the true bellwether.

If the Fed goes hawkish—even just hinting at more rate hikes to come—the dollar index will soar and crypto’s appeal will be suppressed. Money will flow back to traditional markets, and coin prices could come under pressure.

On the flip side, if the Fed turns dovish or if economic data shows weakness, the narrative changes. Once global liquidity loosens up, the crypto market could actually become a new destination for capital. In that scenario, a rally isn’t out of the question.

So retail investors can’t just sit back and relax. You need to stay alert to the rhythm.

**Breaking it down day by day:**

Monday: Data from Japan and Germany comes out first, but the impact on crypto is limited—more of a setup for what’s to come.

Tuesday: Keep an eye on US inflation expectations data. This can give an early read on market sentiment.

Wednesday is the main event. China’s CPI and social financing data will be released, directly reflecting the health of the world’s second-largest economy. If the numbers disappoint, global risk appetite could cool off. But sometimes, crypto actually rebounds on safe-haven demand.

Thursday: Australia’s unemployment rate and US jobless claims will be announced. Expect short-term volatility around this point.

Friday: Europe wraps up the week with its data, but by then, the main direction is usually set.

**The true key window is between Wednesday and Thursday.** That’s when the Fed’s decision comes, and if there’s any surprise, the market will react instantly.

**So how will the crypto market move?**

It’s simple logic: rising rates lead to an exodus from risk assets; weak economic data could make crypto an alternative safe haven.

**What should retail investors do?**

Don’t panic, but don’t play dead either.

If you’re heavily positioned, consider trimming some holdings in advance to give yourself a buffer. If the data surprises negatively, at least you won’t be caught off guard.

If you’re aggressive, you can wait until Wednesday’s data is out. If the numbers are really bad and the market tanks, you might be able to catch a short-term rebound.

But remember one thing: don’t go all in. In a cycle packed with macro events, the market can flip faster than a page in a book. Position management is always more important than trying to predict direction.

Next week will either be an opportunity week or a risk week. You need to figure out which side you’re on first.