#ETH走势分析 In the early hours, this Federal Reserve meeting caused quite a stir. It took only an hour from the start of the decision to the final hammer, something almost unheard of in the past 40 years. The market reaction was straightforward—this is not standard procedure.

The meeting itself exposed several abnormal signals. There was severe internal disagreement on the rate cut magnitude, whether it should be 50 or 75 basis points, and such a level of division is quite rare. Meanwhile, nearly $30 billion in institutional funds had already been positioned in advance—hard to imagine they didn’t sense something. The intensive closed-door meetings before the event and the warning signals from the repo market both pointed to potential liquidity pressures. Combined with the unusually short decision time, this kind of speed typically only occurs when dealing with systemic risks.

In the context of the crypto market, this wave of macro changes is starting to trigger a reallocation of funds. Related sectors in the US stock market have already made the first moves, and the rhythm of “stocks leading, crypto following” is indeed taking shape. Institutional funds may be seeking outlets in assets with greater liquidity and higher volatility.

This also explains why recently there has been a lot of talk about ETH potentially reaching $12,000. The logic mainly has three aspects. First, Ethereum's position as the leading public chain is solid—the compound advantages from ecosystem development, staking yields, and technological iteration form a strong moat. Second, the on-chain upgrade in December is being defined by the market as a “nuclear-level” positive; lower transaction costs will directly activate DApp demand and user growth. Third, on-chain data shows that institutions have long been quietly accumulating positions, just waiting to increase holdings once the hype picks up.

But we also need to see reality clearly. The deeper the divisions within the Fed, the greater the market volatility if policy reverses. This won’t be a one-way bull run; it’s more like a roller coaster—exciting, but you need the psychological strength to handle it.

The bottom-line logic is: macro changes are indeed happening, and capital is seeking opportunities, but emotions tend to amplify these signals. The key is to focus on real macro data and the fundamentals of mainstream coins—don’t get swept up by short-term volatility. There will always be opportunities in the market, but acting on impulse often comes with the highest cost.