#ETH走势分析 The Global Central Bank Crossroads: How Will Fed Rate Cuts and BOJ Rate Hikes Impact Bitcoin?

This week, the global capital markets are focused on two key decisions: the Federal Reserve is about to begin a rate-cutting cycle, while the Bank of Japan stands at the crossroads of a potential rate hike. This policy divergence—easing on one side and tightening on the other—has become the biggest variable in the crypto asset market.

The Fed’s rate cut expectations have long been priced in by the market. The probability of a 25 basis point cut exceeds 90%, but the real suspense lies in the wording—rate cuts themselves are not necessarily bullish; a “hawkish rate cut” is what matters. In other words, the central bank could signal that rates have peaked even as it cuts, which is a double blow for assets seeking liquidity expansion. In this climate of uncertainty, Bitcoin remains volatile as the market waits for a clear liquidity signal.

The BOJ’s shift is even more dramatic. The probability of a rate hike has climbed to 76%, signaling a possible end to decades of negative interest rate policy. If the hike materializes, the logic behind yen carry trades will collapse, potentially triggering a large-scale global capital reallocation. A stronger yen and rising Japanese government bond yields will reshape the relative attractiveness of global assets.

In this global liquidity restructuring, Bitcoin’s role becomes nuanced. It absorbs capital overflow in an easing environment and can serve as a safe-haven asset during extreme market volatility. The recent large-scale Bitcoin ETF allocations by UAE sovereign wealth funds may reflect institutional investors’ recognition of crypto assets as macro allocation tools.

Short-term volatility is inevitable, but over a longer time horizon, Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative trading instrument into an integral part of global macro asset allocation.

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