#Gate广场圣诞送温暖

Does the 4-year cycle still exist? I discussed a few points with friends today and welcome any corrections:

1. According to some BTC whales, based on past experience, a portion of long-term BTC holders engage in buying low and selling high during bull and bear cycles, with the amount of BTC exchanged accounting for about 30% of the total BTC supply.
2. Currently, the holdings of Wall Street institutions, namely DAT and ETFs, account for about 12%. Since the new all-time high, growth has slowed and there have even been slight signs of outflows.
3. Based on points 1 and 2, the existence of a 4-year industry cycle is somewhat self-fulfilling. Crypto native holders still possess significantly more chips than Wall Street's diamond hands. When BTC holders trade according to the 4-year cycle, it's almost impossible for the market to avoid entering a bear phase.
4. Only when enough chips (>30~40%)) are transferred to institutions that don't believe in the 4-year cycle will this cyclical pattern gradually be broken.
5. Due to Wall Street's participation and diamond hands, the maximum drawdown of BTC this cycle will be significantly less than the previous cycle (-78%)). As for the exact figure, it's hard to predict, but in my humble opinion, laddered buying or DCA starting at -50% is a very healthy strategy.
6. As for whether BTC can rally again to challenge 150,000 after the December rate cut or in the obvious first half of the year, that's up to fate. Trying to catch the very top is just too greedy.