Recently, there’s been an interesting voice in the market—a Wall Street analyst directly declared an “extremely bullish” outlook. He listed three reasons: quantitative tightening is ending soon and liquidity is returning; institutions have already cut their losses; and the timing window at the end of the year is just right. He even gave a specific target, saying the S&P 500 could reach 7200-7300 points in December.

Sounds exciting? Hold on.

The logic does make sense. If US stocks really get pushed up by capital, given the correlation among risk assets, crypto sentiment will likely pick up as well—that’s an old pattern. The problem is, the current state of the crypto market is really bad.

The data is clear: overall capital inflow has plunged by over 80%, and the market is ice-cold. Bitcoin on-chain activity has also gone eerily quiet. In this situation, relying solely on sentiment from the US stock market to pull up crypto? That’s too hard. But at least it could provide a floor, preventing prices from free-falling further.

So what should ordinary people do?

Don’t just jump in at the first sign of hype. Focus on two actions:

**Step one, wait and watch.** Keep a close eye on the Nasdaq to see if tech stocks are really starting to “melt up.” This is a key signal for assessing the broader environment. If US stocks don’t move, it’s very hard for crypto to rally on its own.

**Step two, then take action.** If US stocks really take off, then look at the major coins—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and so on—which are relatively safer. Stay away from altcoins; in this market environment, small coins can go to zero at any time.

In short, now is not the time to go all in—it’s time to wait for clear signals. Before the market gives you an opportunity, you need to survive first.