Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon while monitoring the market—the data and the price trend are completely disconnected.

Large orders (ranging from $10,000 to $1 million per order) on a major compliant platform have recently turned into net buying, indicating that big players are quietly accumulating. But if you look at the monthly RSI, it has already dropped from overbought levels to around 60%. Looking through historical data, this position usually takes 200 to 300 days of consolidation before it restarts. At this rate, the real bottom might not come until mid or even Q4 next year.

What's even more contradictory is that institutional buying volumes have consistently exceeded miner output (structural demand is greater than supply), yet the price keeps oscillating within a range.

**To put it simply: the whales are accumulating, but market momentum is exhausted.**

This "slow accumulation" by whales in the bottom range is indeed a signal for long-term positioning. But the problem is, whale buying doesn't mean an immediate price rally—the short-term price will still be held down by sentiment. On the technical side, the monthly RSI pullback means the market is entering a grinding mid-cycle phase, so expecting a surge is unrealistic. Historical experience tells us this kind of adjustment will last at least a few months, so patience is much more important than frequent trading right now.

On the macro level, things aren't looking great either. Even if the Fed does cut rates, the risk of an economic recession could still trigger a liquidity crisis. The premium index on one platform briefly turned positive, but then started fluctuating again, showing that retail investor confidence is still very fragile.

**So what should we do now?**

My thoughts are:
- Keep positions at around half, and leave 50% in cash to place staggered orders near key support levels (like 60K, 55K)
- Adjust your mindset—mid-cycle is about "enduring" not "trading," don't FOMO just because others are posting gains
- Focus on fundamentals—continued institutional buying is the real long-term support, and you can ignore the short-term noise

At the end of the day, it's all about who has the patience to sit tight.