#加密市场反弹

This morning, BTC broke through $94,500 strongly, ETH approached the $3,400 threshold, and the market swept away the dullness of the past few days, presenting a broad rally pattern. Such moments are often exciting, but it’s even more important to think calmly: what is the nature of this rebound? Which sectors have sustainability? How should I adjust my strategy?

Rebound Nature Judgment: Institution-led “Narrative Validation Period”

In my opinion, this rebound is not just a technical correction. Approaching the end of the year, market funds are pre-positioning and testing the core narratives for next year. Whales and institutions may be using periods of relatively ample liquidity to perform “pressure tests” on their favored tracks, observing the market’s follow-on effects. Therefore, differentiation within the rebound will be extremely important.

Key Rebound Coins and Logic I Focus On

Besides the regular gainers like ZEN, AXL mentioned in the activity, I pay more attention to the narrative logic embedded in the rebound rather than just the increase:

1. Modularization and Infrastructure (e.g., $AXL, $TIA):
These coins’ rebounds often indicate market expectations for “underlying blockchain architecture innovation in the next bull market.” Their rise tends to be more resilient and is suitable as a core holding during the rebound period. I am optimistic about projects with substantial progress in testnets and ecosystem collaborations.
2. AI + DePIN Cross-sector Tracks (e.g., $RNDR, $AKT):
This is one of the most promising narratives I see for next year. In this rebound, some tokens within this track have not fully exploded yet, presenting great potential for rotation and catch-up. My strategy is to look for projects with moderate market cap and smaller token release pressures to position, aiming to make them focal points in the next rebound.
3. “Strong Memory” Meme Coins (e.g., $WIF, $BONK):
The rebound of $WIF reminds us that liquidity-driven markets will never forget the power of “community FOMO.” For such assets, my approach is very clear: participate in small positions, strictly follow stop-loss rules, and never fight the market. They are amplifiers of indices but are not the ballast of assets.

My Recent Trading Strategy Framework

In the current rebound environment, I adopt a “Core + Satellite, staged maneuvering” strategy:

· Core Position (50%): Allocated to BTC, ETH, and 1-2 infrastructure leaders I favor. The goal is to follow market beta and avoid frequent trading.
· Satellite Position (30%): Used to chase the strong sectors of this rebound (such as AI, modularization). I will use “breakout buy-in and dip-add” methods, but strictly keep individual batch positions within 5% of total funds.
· Cash Position (20%): Maintain flexibility, used for two scenarios: one is to add during unexpected market corrections; the other is to quickly enter when a new strong sector confirms activation, acting as a “rapid attack team.”

Risk control is the top priority now. I will set the overall stop-loss at whether BTC can stay firmly above $93,000. If it breaks below and fails to hold, I will reduce satellite positions comprehensively and switch to a defensive stance.