#加密市场反弹

This morning, the market is buzzing with excitement. BTC has surged past $94,500, ETH is approaching the $3,400 mark, and the total market capitalization has increased by over 2.7% in a single day. Market sentiment is like a spark that has been ignited, quickly recovering from silence. However, in the face of this sudden rebound, we need to stay calm and think carefully: Is this the prelude to a new bull market, or just a technical rebound within a structural adjustment?

🔍 The driving forces behind the rebound: macro and technical resonance

On the surface, it appears to be driven by spontaneous buying pressure. But a deeper analysis shows that recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, as well as market expectations of rate cuts next year, provide crucial macro liquidity support for risk assets (including the crypto market). Meanwhile, several leading coins have received strong buy support at key technical support levels (such as BTC near $90,000), forming a dual resonance of “macro expectations + technical support.”

🚀 Which sectors and coins are worth paying close attention to?

Apart from leading the rally, BTC and ETH, some altcoins performed notably, revealing possible fund flows:

1. Modularization and infrastructure: like AXL’s strong performance, indicating that the market’s long-term confidence in next-generation blockchain architectures (interoperability, modularity) remains intact. This sector is likely to continue benefiting from core industry technological evolution narratives.
2. Meme and community-driven tokens: the active trading of coins like WIF once again proves the explosive power of community-driven assets in highly volatile markets. These assets are suitable for high-risk, keen-sensing traders.
3. Deep-value recovery: coins like ZEN (privacy sector) and LUNA (ecosystem reconstruction) that experienced significant deep corrections often rebound strongly with “valuation repair” properties. This suggests we should focus on high-quality projects whose fundamentals haven’t deteriorated but were unjustly punished by market sentiment.

💡 My recent trading strategy: stability while seeking progress

In the face of the rebound, my approach leans toward “holding core positions and tactically chasing small positions”:

· Unchanged core logic: I still consider BTC and ETH as the main anchors (accounting for 60% of the total portfolio). Their validation of key support levels during this rebound reassures me, so I will continue to hold them and avoid shorting the trend casually.
· Selective altcoin rotation: I will allocate a small portion of funds (about 20%) to sectors with sustained narratives such as modularization, AI + crypto, and compliant RWA. I will choose 1-2 projects like AXL with technical breakthroughs and ecosystem progress for tactical actions, with strict stop-loss levels (e.g., -8%).
· Maintain cash flexibility: I will never be fully invested at the peak of the rebound. Keep at least 20% in USDT/USDC to handle potential pullbacks and seize clear opportunities when they arise.

⚠️ Final reminder: beware of FOMO, assess your risk tolerance

History repeatedly proves that maintaining vigilance during market euphoria is key to long-term survival. Although this rebound is strong, attention should be paid to whether trading volume can continue to grow, and whether signs of a “false prosperity” emerge—mainstream coins stagnating while only smaller tokens perform.

My core principle is: never chase coins that have surged over 30% without immediate fundamental benefits. Investment is about translating cognition into action; every trade should be based on clear logic, not impulsive reactions driven by market sentiment.

The market’s script is always changing, but our discipline should remain consistent. I wish everyone can find their own alpha in this round of market.