🧐 Emotions are at the top, truth is at the bottom｜Last night saw a surge followed by a drop: $BTC $ETH

To be honest, when it’s rising, it doesn’t look like a “trend,” more like “stepping into a liquidity void,” soft and feathery!

Although the FOMC cut rates, it was just in line with expectations. The dot plot was bearish: “Don’t overthink it, maybe only one rate cut next year.”

This statement influences risk assets more than any candlestick chart.

So the market structure has become—
Rising relies on emotion, falling depends on pricing.

Let’s see the upcoming months’ employment, inflation, and wage growth;
If the data continues to weaken,
The market will re-price as “more, faster, and closer rate cuts,”
The confidence in risk assets will return:
This drop will only be a shakeout.

But if the data holds up, inflation rises, and the labor force remains tight,
Then BTC will enter a:
More exhausting, chaotic, and repetitive range-bound phase.

Ultimately, we are now in the stage of the weakest consensus:
Everyone is expecting a direction,
But funds are tightly held,
This is the root of liquidity shortage,
Not that everyone is out of money.

In such markets,
The easiest to lose money are not those who see the wrong direction,
But those who are eager to find answers.