This should be the most divided Federal Reserve in terms of internal opinions—

If it weren't for the relentless pressure and push from the懂王, the Fed might not even reach a consensus on whether to cut interest rates.

What are the reasons for such significant disagreements?

Generally speaking, adjustments are mainly based on the 2% inflation target: raise rates if inflation exceeds 2%, cut rates if employment is severely impacted.

But the current situation in the US is contradictory—first, inflation has been consistently above 2%, and second, employment growth data is declining.

Therefore, the meeting in the early hours was somewhat ambiguous—sometimes hawkish, sometimes dovish, and all of Powell’s speeches this year have been almost ambiguous and quite strange, also because there’s a lot of fog within their own ranks.

Additionally, don’t forget,懂王 also has a card up his sleeve: for the mid-term elections, he said he is considering using tariff revenue to distribute money to everyone next year.

On the surface, it’s fiscal stimulus, but in reality, it could be a second ignition of inflation.

If you were Powell, would you dare to raise rates to oppose it? No. Then, the only option is to be forced to expand the balance sheet to serve as a safety net, turning monetary policy into a subordinate fiscal tool.

So, guessing【how many times they will cut rates】is pointless. The Fed’s operations next year will be summarized in four words: unpredictable!