#数字资产生态回暖 Bitcoin Night Market Analysis

$BTC is currently fluctuating around 90261, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 3%. The 4-hour timeframe shows obvious weakening. From the candlestick position, the price has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which is now around 91435, serving as a short-term key resistance level.

The moving average configuration is a typical bearish arrangement—MA5 is pressing down on MA10 and MA20, with no signs of waning. On the MACD indicator, DIF has crossed below DEA to form a death cross, and the green histogram is still expanding, indicating that bearish momentum is further strengthening. However, the J value of the KDJ has dropped to 2.72, indicating a clear short-term oversold condition. A small rebound is likely, but the rebound space won't be too large.

Support and resistance levels are as follows: a breakout above 93320 is a near resistance, with 96443 as a strong resistance; downside support is at 88198, with a stronger support at 86198. Regarding volume, during the previous decline, trading volume was decent, but now it has shrunk significantly. Market participants are mostly on the sidelines, and trading sentiment is cautious.

**Long-position idea**: It’s not suitable to enter now. Only when the price breaks above 93500 with increased volume—this level coincides with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and a resistance zone—can a rebound potentially continue. Otherwise, it is likely just a short-term rebound or correction.

**Two approaches for shorting**: If you are more aggressive, you can try shorting around 90261, but keep your position light, controlling it within 5%. For a more conservative strategy, wait for a rebound to the 91000-91500 range to build positions gradually, as this is the resistance zone of MA5 and the Bollinger middle band. Set stop-losses at 93500-94000. The initial target downside is 88198; if broken, then look at 86198. If 86198 also gives way, the next target is 83075.

**Key point**: Once $BTC volume breaks above 93500 and rises, the bearish pattern may reverse. At that point, you must close your positions and exit—avoid holding through the upward breakout.