FOMC Post-Decision: What the Interest Rate Cut Means for the Crypto World

The Federal Reserve announced yesterday (10/12/2025) a 25 basis point cut in interest rates, bringing the Fed Funds range to 3.50% to 3.75%, ending a prolonged period of monetary tightening. The decision was widely expected, but the real impact is not just in the cut — but in the message behind it.

Below, I break down what really matters about the decision, the statement, and the speech, and how this could affect the cryptocurrency market in the coming days and weeks.

✂️The Cut Happened, But the Discourse Was More Important

The movement to cut was already priced into almost all markets — fixed income, stocks, and even crypto. The key point was the cautious tone adopted in the statement:

• The Fed highlighted that several recent economic data are incomplete due to the government shutdown lasting 43 days.
• The institution stated it will carefully assess future data before cutting again.
• Inflation remains above the 2% target, partly driven by pass-through of import costs.

In other words: the cut happened, but there was no confirmation of a continuous cycle of cuts. The Fed didn’t want to promise anything.

This tends to leave the market in a “wait-and-see” mode.

🔎Why Did the Fed Cut Now? Important Context

Even with inflation above the target, the Fed observed signs of economic slowdown, along with:

• slight increase in unemployment,
• moderate economic activity growth,
• internal projections already suggesting lower interest rates throughout 2026.

There was also political noise: public pressures for larger cuts, including from President Donald Trump. While this does not determine the Fed’s decision, it creates an environment where the monetary authority avoids abrupt moves — whether up or down.

All these factors combined, the 25 bps cut was practically the only “safe” decision.

💥Immediate Impact on Bitcoin and the Crypto Market

Historically, interest rate cuts increase liquidity and improve risk appetite. But since the discourse was conservative, the short-term impact is likely to be more contained.

What we might see in the coming days:

📈 If the market focuses on the cut:

BTC could gain momentum, especially if it breaks resistance levels that were held back by fears of interest rate maintenance.

📉 If the market focuses on the discourse:

We may see sideways movement or even a short correction, especially if new inflation readings come in higher.

🔄 Likely outcome?

Volatility. Crypto reacts more strongly to the Fed’s tone than to the “dry” rate data.

🕵️What the SEP (Projection Report) Reveals

The official projections showed that Fed members expect:

• inflation decelerating over the next quarters,
• lower average interest rates by the end of 2026,
• moderate activity, with no imminent recession risk.

This indicates that, structurally, the Fed does not intend to keep interest rates high for long — but also won’t accelerate cuts until more data clarity emerges.

For the crypto market, this is important: expectations matter as much as actual decisions.

🤔And What Does This Mean for Altcoins?

Altcoins tend to react after Bitcoin, but with more strength.

Typical post-FOMC scenario:

• BTC reacts first to the statement.
• Altcoins follow with a delay, but in an amplified manner.
• Specific narratives (AI, infrastructure, staking, RWAs) resume flow if the market sees room for more liquidity.

If BTC remains stable with moderate gains, the trend is decreasing dominance and altcoins moving more.

If BTC corrects, altcoins also correct — and more sharply.

👀What to Watch Now

In the coming weeks, some indicators will be decisive:

• Payroll Report (Employment)
• PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation measure)
• Manufacturing and Services PMIs

Any data above expectations tends to reignite fears that the Fed will pause the rate cut cycle. Weaker data tends to accelerate rate cut expectations — favoring risk assets.

✅Conclusion: The FOMC Was Neither Hawkish Nor Dovish — It Was Cautious

The cut happened. The discourse held back enthusiasm. And now the market is at a fragile equilibrium point.

For cryptocurrency investors, the practical message is:

• It’s not a “bull market unleashed” scenario.
• Nor is it a scenario of monetary tightening.
• We are in a zone where monthly data will determine the market’s direction.

Until then, volatility should continue — and perhaps even increase.

And you, are you prepared for the impact of this Fed decision on your trading plan… or will you wait for the market to teach you the hard way?