#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Why Did the Crypto Market Retrace Significantly After the Fed Cut Rates? Is This Really the Time to Be Bearish?

After the Federal Reserve announced rate cuts and launched a monthly purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, the market experienced a noticeable correction. Bitcoin retraced its gains within 12 hours, and many began to worry about a reversal. But a closer look at this drop reveals a different picture.

**Why the Sudden Drop? Three Key Signals**

First is the concentrated profit-taking. The rate cut had been widely anticipated, with data showing a 95% probability of reduction before the announcement, prompting major traders to prepare. Once the Fed officially announced the cut, whales immediately cashed out, triggering the first wave of sell-off.

Second, Powell didn’t leave much room for imagination. During the press conference, he emphasized the weak labor market and still-elevated inflation, with the dot plot indicating only a possible one more rate cut in 2026. It sounded like a slowdown, but the expectation of easing was dashed, causing US stock futures to tumble right after the opening.

Third, the impact of Oracle’s earnings report. Q2 results missed expectations, yet capital expenditure was increased, leading to an after-hours plunge of over 11%. Has the AI bubble peaked? Such thoughts spread in the stock market and then propagated into the crypto space, infecting sentiment. $BTC, $ZEC, $MDT, among others, followed suit.

**But This Is Not a Fundamental Reversal**

In reality, the logic behind the sharp decline is quite simple — expectations were pre-absorbed, liquidity and trading conditions were pre-arranged, and no new stimulus signals were given by the authorities, leading to a stampede. This isn’t a bear market; it’s a normal correction after a bullish run.

Looking at the long term, the story remains unchanged. The Fed has already cut rates three times consecutively, and it will continue buying short-term Treasuries each month. Rate hikes are not on the agenda, and economic growth in 2026 is expected to be stable, with a weak labor market providing room for subsequent easing.

In other words, the liquidity environment in 2026 will be much better than in 2025, and this expectation is not yet fully reflected in the prices. The current drop is actually a retracement of expectations ahead of reality. Short-term pain, long-term fundamentals remain intact.