Last night, the Federal Reserve finally acted—25 basis points cut, yes, they cut.

But look at their expressions? So hawkish it’s terrifying. The expectation of rate cuts next year has been directly cut in half. Where’s the supposed easing?

They talk tough, but in their hand, they’re holding a candy—$40 billion repurchase plan. The market was stunned—what kind of show is this?

BTC’s reaction is the most honest: from $94,000 crashing down to $89,000, all positive news exhausted, revealing true colors in a second.

Do you think it’s over?

Bro, this is just the beginning. The real thunder is still hidden in Japan.

Now everyone’s watching the Federal Reserve’s movements, but they’re ignoring an even more dangerous role—the Bank of Japan. How likely are they to raise interest rates? Very high. And this sword is hanging over global risk assets.

As long as Japan doesn’t give a clear signal, the market will stay nervous. Any small movement can cause prices to plunge, perhaps even more violently than yesterday.

Why do I say that?

Because once Japan raises rates, global arbitrage funds will instantly flow back. US bonds, stocks, BTC—all will suffer, liquidity will be drained directly. In short, this downward trend isn’t finished; don’t expect a strong rebound in the short term.

So when will the decline stop? That’s probably what most people are worried about.

I’ll give you a possibly unpalatable answer: a decent rebound may not be seen this year.

Why am I so sure?

Because this rate cut by the Federal Reserve is essentially a “passive, cautious rate cut,” not a flood of liquidity. The力度不足、意愿不强，刺激效果自然有限。