Another touching moment has arrived; interest rate cuts no longer determine the daily trend in the short term. The market anticipated the expectations regarding rate cuts and reacted accordingly. Many well-known online personalities said that Powell might make hawkish statements during the meeting, which will at least influence the medium-term trend over the next six months. I believe the impact is no longer as strong as before; after Hashet reappeared, he sends a friendly signal to the market randomly, which is a kind of subtle challenge.

Individual investors are accustomed to watching this drama and are often unaware. The cryptocurrency market has begun to suffer from a decline in public interest due to these benefiting groups, and genuine demand for immediate assets from individual investors is not much. Most players exhausted themselves in the end-of-2025 battle. If you don't own Bitcoin or have idle liquidity, who will stay here listening to your talk? 80% of players are now indifferent. Let’s destroy this together.

As one of the ordinary players, yesterday I closed all my short-term buy positions. I don't want to continue holding positions facing such high-risk moments. I have long said that for most part-time players, as time passes and understanding deepens, the situation becomes actually unfavorable. Over-consuming instant information leads to distraction and memory confusion, making it difficult to make rational and long-term decisions, especially those prioritizing capital security.

After December, will the market continue north or head south? No one knows. There’s a meeting on the 18th to raise interest rates in Japan, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which might have been released on the 10th, was delayed to the 18th(. After experiencing Trump’s market in 25, I am more certain that the world is an unorganized random stage, with unexpected events and black swans catching us off guard. These events have knocked out a group of investors who imagine four-year cycles.

When we reach this point, we realize that the 25-year path was designed by capital. Reflecting on the same period last December, with Bitcoin and many altcoins rising, we thought we were at the start of a strong bullish market. After Biden took power, a huge bullish cycle in cryptocurrencies was expected, at least doubling prices compared to that time.

Thus, throughout the year, every dip prompts us to look for patterns supporting our confidence, and every fluctuation encourages us to invest in value. But the market doesn’t believe in individual investors’ tears. They successfully predicted our expectations, and our shares have become rich prey for the biggest players in the market.

The expectation is that an upward cycle over 25 years will be difficult, but it was not expected to be this hard. Although futures funding in the current cycle is much higher than spot assets, the conclusion is that: after 25 years, more individual investors will withdraw due to losses, and the 3-year crypto market experienced a fake bear market due to a lack of wealth legends and increased regulation of stablecoins, leading to a decline in local players. In other words, during this liquidity-scarce period, the altcoins we hold are likely to collapse to zero.

These are not exaggerated warnings but a clear logical future deduction. It’s important to understand that since the ICO era began in 2017, the proportion of Chinese players in the global crypto market reached 60%, and the share of Chinese community players in China exceeded 70%. In 25, this figure perhaps dropped below 40%.

Without new capital inflows, who will buy worthless altcoins?

The answer is clear: major altcoins have already reached this state, let alone fringe coins that have lost their trading vitality. A friend commented in the comments section: “If things are not favorable, convert your altcoin holdings to Bitcoin.” This advice might have been valuable before 1011, but after 1011, the conversion costs and resulting losses have become very high.

During a live broadcast, I once said that for most ordinary players, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the best coins. In real life, it’s hard to find better investments than Bitcoin and Ethereum. I believe that after experiencing 25 years of the crypto market cycle, honest recognition and understanding of this will be more beneficial for most players on their upcoming path.

Try to allocate some Bitcoin. Although Ethereum’s performance currently looks better than Bitcoin, the long-term view indicates that Bitcoin is an excellent asset for long-term cyclical investment.

With December approaching, although the market has seen a good rebound, buying power in spot assets remains subdued. The overall market atmosphere is strange. US policies and the fundamental environment for major coins are heading toward stability, including stopping quantitative easing, ongoing rate cuts, altcoin investment funds, re-pledging Bitcoin/Ethereum/USDC, and other positive events. These haven’t stirred much waves. Individual investors are generally pessimistic and cautious, and the prevailing voices from major figures agree that the market is in a bear phase. However, higher-level professionals believe this is a turning point, and there is room for a significant rise in 26.

I also cannot clearly determine the current short-term trend. So in September, I devised a response plan: selling 20% of my large position expecting a dip, and delaying exiting until the first quarter of 26. I did not expect major altcoins to fall so strongly due to the series of events on 1011.

Recently, I have been worried and disappointed about my altcoin positions, even though they only make up 30% of my portfolio. Honestly, I wanted to profit from altcoin rises to fund post-pandemic life. Unfortunately, looking back, their highest value was in December 24.

When I saw Ada drop below cost price, I immediately realized how the players who invested in altcoins from early 22-23 and didn’t exit at the end of 24 felt. I suffered over a year of holding positions; what if this continued for years with losses? On the other hand, when everyone plans to sell major altcoins to protect their capital or fears risks and converts their holdings to Bitcoin, where do those sold holdings go?

Revisiting the charts of altcoins that surpassed their 21 highs: if they truly have real practical value, or focus on specific issues, or have a consensus community, or the projects and providers that accumulated holdings over three years of scraping will need to raise prices to gather distributions, especially during high liquidity periods )as reviewed in the November broadcast(.

Today, reviewing the hourly and daily charts of some major altcoins, we notice they are gradually stabilizing. This doesn’t mean the price will rise now, but the foundation for building a bottom should have stabilized. After passing this difficult phase until the first quarter of next year, I think that based on your average entry price and reducing profit expectations from 4-5x to 2-3x, it’s very likely to achieve this.

By clarifying this logic, it becomes easier to understand the question of if you currently hold altcoins and want to participate in the 26 market.

If unrealized losses are less than 30%, it indicates your average entry price is reasonable and tolerable. If the fundamental environment still supports high-quality narratives, holding on is no problem.

If losses are between 30%-50%, depend on how much you care about protecting your capital. If your funds are small and your coins still support a good story, continue holding. If your funds are large and your focus is capital recovery, it’s better to look for an opportunity to transfer the position to Ethereum )entry price depends on the opportunity, and I believe that the 2600-2800 level will be valuable relative to the price (.

If losses exceed 50%, depend on your daily trading volume of the coin you hold. If it’s less than 2 million yuan, the bubble has probably burst, and there’s no need to continue holding. Regarding how to recover, it’s best to rethink why you chose these coins and then assess your market suitability.