#美联储降息 Bitcoin's current performance doesn't seem to be giving any particular signals. From a cyclical perspective, the price has shown a decent initial rebound at the .382 Fibonacci retracement level—which, in theory, is also a low point that can be reached without breaking the weekly structure.

Personally, I see a clear invalidation point in the higher timeframes. If it breaks below the November low, the bulls will really be in danger. As we approach the end of the year, the voices talking about 'four-year cycle sell-offs' should gradually fade away.

What interests me most is the first quarter of 2026—that period will provide answers, telling us where this cycle is headed next. $BTC $ETH $SOL is also worth paying attention to at this point.