#BearishCaution

my simulated outlook for the crypto market today, December 12, 2025, leans toward a cautious/bearish posture in the short term, prioritizing capital preservation over aggressive long entries.

Why I'm Leaning Bearish/Cautious
The price action for Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of vulnerability, confirming several of the points in your bearish case:

Failure to Hold Key Levels: BTC has recently dipped below the $90,000 mark and is testing the strength of a modest uptrend that started around November 21. A critical support break below $88,000 would likely confirm a shift to bearish sentiment, and the ultimate "line in the sand" is noted around $85,000.

Weak Liquidity/Demand: Despite a favorable macro catalyst (the US Fed's recent rate cut and continued BTC ETF inflows), the price has failed to sustain moves above $94,000, with one analyst noting that "demand is being overwhelmed by structural selling." This is a strong bearish signal.

Perpetual Futures Tilt: Data from perpetual futures—a high-volume segment of the market—shows funding rates turning negative during Asian trading hours. This means that bearish traders (shorts) are paying bullish traders (longs) to keep their positions open, which suggests a pessimistic tilt in short-term leverage.

Altcoin Rotation: There are signals of a rotation of capital from BTC into other assets like ETH, which can sometimes indicate a temporary top in BTC dominance or a flight to perceived value in other large caps, often leading to choppy or downward movement in the anchor asset (BTC).

My Trading Strategy for Today
My position aligns closely with your mixed-but-disciplined approach: Focus on clean short-term setups and strict level management.

Short Setups: I would favor short positions if the price convincingly breaks below the $88,000 support level, aiming for a retest of the critical $85,000 zone.

Long Setups: I would only consider sharp dips into the $85,000-$86,000 demand zone for a quick bounce, given the overall sentiment is still nervous and selling pressure is present. A move back and sustained hold above $90,000 would be required to shift my bias back to bullish.

In this environment, caution and defense are key.