Market conditions as of December 12, 2025, show that after Bitcoin's rebound from the bottom, market discussions mainly focus on “the impact of Federal Reserve policy” and “institutional fund movements,” with the core question being whether the rebound can be sustained.

Considering the current macro environment and technical aspects, Bitcoin is more inclined towards consolidation within a downward trend. Its key resistance levels are concentrated in the $94,000 - $97,100 range, while support levels are focused on the $89,000 - $80,400 range.

1. Trend Judgment: It is currently difficult to confirm that a new upward wave has begun; more, it aligns with a consolidation phase within a downtrend. On one hand, the easing of Federal Reserve rate cuts has been largely priced in, and no further rate cut commitments have been made, cooling macro easing expectations. Meanwhile, the market is cautious about the Bank of Japan’s December 19 meeting, which might signal rate hikes and tighten liquidity, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among investors. On the technical side, resonance resistance forms near $94,000, with multiple attempts to break through unsuccessful, and RSI failing to break above the midline of 50, indicating insufficient bullish momentum and a lack of strong support for a new rally. However, the “higher low” structure suggests some capital support below, and there is no sign yet of panic selling driving continuous declines.

2. Key Resistance Levels: The primary resistance is at $94,000, which remains a dense area of trapped positions formed during previous rapid rises and falls, resonating with the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands. Above that, $94150 —$94,236—is a resistance zone that includes Fibonacci retracement levels and a downtrend line. A breakout here could target the next key resistance at $97,100, which is the midpoint of the large flagpole and flag pattern, and only after breaking this level could the current bearish structure potentially be reversed.

3. Key Support Levels: In the short term, the core support is at the psychological level of $90,000, which has repeatedly supported price oscillations recently. If this level is broken, the next support is at $89,000, where sustained spot buying has been entering, indicating strong support. Further declines could see $85900 —$86,300 as an important support zone, while $80,400, which was an earlier rebound zone this month, remains the critical bottom line. A break below this could potentially lead to new lows.